Failing Upwards: Ukraine Likely Planning New Counteroffensive for 2024 - Expert

The news comes after the broad defeat of Kiev’s much-hyped 2023 counteroffensive which began in June of this year.

Hope springs eternal for beleaguered military planners in Kiev, who are likely plotting a new Ukrainian counteroffensive according to a report in German media Saturday.

Nico Lange, a senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference and a former German official, speculated the new campaign would take place next year. Although Western support of Ukraine is in decline, the expert claimed Kiev still possesses large stockpiles of military equipment and will likely receive more in the months to come.

“Ukraine is probably gathering resources for a new counteroffensive next year,” said Lange, suggesting the regime may attempt to cross the Dnepr River from the southern Kherson area.

The report noted the long list of military equipment Ukraine has requested from the United States, including attack helicopters, advanced fighter jets, long-range missile systems, and Abrams tanks. The report claimed the substantial wishlist suggested the country “still has big plans.”

On Friday another German media outlet cited sources claiming Kiev is devising a “new war plan.” Having given up on reversing Russian territorial claims, the country will instead attempt to reduce public support for the military operation in Russia by inflicting large numbers of casualties.

“Our goal is to have the kill ratio as positive as possible,” said one unnamed Ukrainian officer. Another source agreed that “the main thing is that most Ukrainians stay alive.”

Public support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has eroded in recent months as the country’s military losses have mounted. Recently the country has been forced to move towards registering women, teenagers, and elderly men to be drafted to fight. Speculation has emerged that declining Western support for Kiev will result in Zelensky being replaced as president, perhaps by military leader Valery Zaluzhny.

An unnamed former Western military official told German media “what we are experiencing is basically a controlled rearguard action” in Ukraine, suggesting the country’s military is on an essentially defensive footing.

Political developments have suggested support for Ukraine is waning in the United States as well. A funding package has stalled in Congress as Republicans have insisted on incorporating funding for border security. The populist flank of the party has long questioned President Joe Biden’s support for Kiev while polling shows a plurality of Americans believe the US is sending too much money to Ukraine.

Zelensky’s wife recently appeared on British state media to admonish American taxpayers against growing “tired” of sending money to Ukraine.