Analysts: Tusk’s Poland to be ‘Same’ as Kaczyński’s ‘Only Without the Shouting’

Despite a change in leadership in the Sejm from Eurosceptic to pro-Brussels leaders, Poland will largely continue on the course laid out for it by the Western powers, political experts told Sputnik. The Eastern European nation has been a member of NATO since 1999 and the European Union since 2004.

Donald Tusk returned to heading the Polish Council of Ministers on Monday, following a no-confidence vote in the Sejm that ousted then-Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieski of the right-wing Law and Justice Party.

Tusk previously served as prime minister from 2007 until 2014, when he became president of the European Council. He heads the center-right Civic Platform party.

On Tuesday, Tusk doubled down on Warsaw's international commitments, saying he would defend Poland’s national interests even as his government continues to support the Ukrainian cause, for which Poland has paid a deep economic price.

The announcement came as the outgoing defense minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, said that Poland would object to an attempt by the European Parliament to consolidate “national defense competencies” in Brussels. Unlike Law and Justice, the Sejm coalition led by Tusk is much more pro-EU.

However, Konrad Rekas, a Polish politician and independent commentator, told Sputnik that the change in Warsaw would be almost purely superficial.

“Let’s emphasize: we are facing a change in phraseology and propaganda, not a real political/geopolitical change,” Rekas said on Tuesday.

“Contrary to its Eurosceptic declarations, the Law and Justice government unconditionally accepted the main directions of the European Commission's actions, including the energy transformation, extremely unfavorable for Poland, and the privileges given to Ukrainian carriers on the European market. [Law and Justice leader and former Deputy Prime Minister] Jarosław Kaczyński shouted a lot but did absolutely nothing to make the Polish economy independent from the German one. So under Tusk's government it will be the same, only without the shouting.”

Indeed, Rekas noted that Warsaw’s enthusiastic support for Kiev, even to the detriment of its own military and its own population, would continue under Tusk as it had under Morawiecki.

“Both the previous and the current government stand unconditionally on the side of the Kiev regime, and until Tusk receives other instructions from Washington and Berlin, this support will continue in money, in weapons, in equipment, in favoring Ukrainian imports on the Polish market,” he said.

“It is true that the Polish government buys masses of weapons, but only to send them for free further, to Kiev. Just in recent days, the Ukrainian 44th Independent Mechanized Brigade has confirmed the supply of modern M120K (SMK120) Rak self-propelled automatic mortars from the Poles, which were taken straight from the Polish army storages. Only when there is no longer anyone in Ukraine to use this weapon will it perhaps remain in Polish hands. Unfortunately, however, only to continue the NATO-Russia war with direct Polish involvement,” he said.

Mateusz Piskorski, a political observer and columnist for the Myśl Polska (Polish Thought) newspaper, told Sputnik that Tusk’s premiership would lead to “more stable” relations between Warsaw and Brussels, although there would still be conflicts, as there are between the EU and every European capital.

“For Poland, well, let's wait. It’s too early to talk about what measures the new government will take regarding strategic decisions and strategic problems, because after all, it will be officially formed only tomorrow, and we don’t even know yet what program this government has,” he noted.

“The appointment of Radosław Sikorski to the post of foreign minister will mean that the Polish Foreign Ministry is returning as a certain player in Polish foreign policy. Because over the past eight years of the Law and Justice Party government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has actually been completely removed from foreign policy issues, oddly enough.”

“Foreign policy was handled exclusively by the president and President Andrzej Duda’s entourage,” he explained. “The prime minister and the ministry of foreign affairs were marginal structures from the point of view of the model of governing the country, and now Sikorski’s rather strong, bright personality guarantees that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will once again play an important role in shaping the foundations of foreign policy.”

However, Piskorski noted that Tusk’s foreign policy course would ultimately depend on the general course of Western geopolitical interests, which might soon deviate from their course under Morawiecki.

“I think that over the coming months, the entire collective West will refuse any support for Ukraine. Poland will do the same, naturally. I think that Tusk and the new government in general will clearly understand and feel the trends which are now appearing in the politics of the collective West. Therefore, now in words, of course, we have already listened to Tusk’s first statement that he intends to unconditionally support both [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky and Ukraine, but, nevertheless, I personally believe that this is all temporary, and his position will depend on the general trend,” he said.

However, unlike Rekas, Piskorski predicted that Tusk’s government will have to bow to its financial reality and “slow down” its arms purchases from other partners, such as South Korea. However, he cautioned it would “not be completely suspended.”

“This is to be expected, if only because the outgoing Law and Justice government increased defense spending many times over, even above this 2% of GDP that the Western allies, represented by Washington in particular, have demanded. Therefore, I still think that the increase in the level of militarization and the purchase of new weapons will be slightly slowed down.”