US-Arab Post-War Gaza Scenario Talks Doomed While Israel Bombs Enclave - Expert

As the Palestine-Israel conflict rages on and Tel Aviv’s war on Hamas enters a new phase after a brief ceasefire, questions are already being asked about what comes next — and what type of governance can be expected for the enclave.

Negotiations between the US and its regional allies on Gaza’s post-war governance are unlikely to achieve Washington's aims, Shahram Akbarzadeh, expert in the Middle Eastern politics at Deakin University, told Sputnik.

“No Arab state will agree to be part of post-war future while Israel is bombing Gaza,” he emphasized.

Biden administration officials are reportedly working on a scenario for Gaza’s post-war future. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met on December 8 with a delegation of representatives from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and the Palestinian Authority.

US officials want both Gaza and the West Bank governed in future by a “unified government” led by a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority (PA).

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared at odds with the Biden administration, ruling out the idea that the West Bank-based authority could run Gaza.

"There will have to be something else there. There won't be a civilian authority that educates their children to hate Israel, to kill Israelis, to wipe out the state of Israel," Netanyahu said in November.

“The reality is that Israel is the occupying power, and as such, needs to behave in accordance to Geneva Convention, and provide protection and safety for the civilian population. Israel needs to abide by international law until such time that a Palestinian state can emerge, Shahram Akbarzadeh stressed.

It is difficult to predict possible results of negotiations between the US authorities and the Palestinian administration on Gaza’s future, Dr Vladimir Morozov, Associate Professor, vice-Rector, MGIMO University, told Sputnik.

The Palestinian-Israeli issue clearly cannot be resolved without US participation, he emphasized. But the outcome of talks should rule out Israel occupying the Gaza Strip, installing a temporary military administration there, or creating a buffer zone further eroding the territory of the enclave.

“That is what the Americans are working on now, I believe,” Dr Morozov said.

Shortly before the meeting, Washington vetoed a UN resolution presented by the United Arab Emirates calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza — the only council member to do so.

US officials recently met with PA Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh to seek his input regarding a plan for Gaza after the end of hostilities.

“We’re not going to go there on an Israeli military plan," Shtayyeh said. "Our people are there. We need to put together a mechanism, something we’re working on with the international community.”

Hamas could play a role in that scenario as a “junior partner under the broader Palestine Liberation Organization,” Mohammed Shtayyeh added, helping build a “new independent state that includes the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem.”

“Hamas before October 7 is one thing and after it is another thing. If they are ready to come to an agreement and accept the political platform of the PLO, then there will be room for talk. Palestinians should not be divided,” Shtayyeh said. The PA Prime Minister insisted that “Israel will fail in its goal to wipe out Hamas,” clarifying that “Hamas is not in Gaza only. Hamas is in Lebanon, everybody knows Hamas leadership is in Qatar and they are here in the West Bank.”

Talks on a Gaza scenario come as Israel continues its war on Hamas, with the civilian death toll in the enclave continuing to mount.

The Ministry of Health in Gaza claims 17,177 people, including 7,112 children, have been killed and 46,000 wounded since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict started on October 7. In the West Bank, the cited death toll stood at 266.

According to Shtayyeh, every effort by PA ministers to interact with Israeli counterparts has been rejected.

“Look at what Netanyahu has been saying — no return to the Palestinian Authority, no two-state solution. What does this mean?" the Palestinian prime minister asked. "Netanyahu wants a continuation of a military occupation of the Palestinian territory. This is not acceptable.”

Two-State Solution 'Not Matter of Next 10 Years'

Representatives of the Biden administration will need to work out the details of what life in the Gaza Strip will look like after Israel’s military operation, Vladimir Morozov stated.

Everything that has happened, he said, is because the international community failed to deal with the Palestinian issue after the quartet of international mediators ceased to exist in 2014. Attempts to reach a final settlement through talks at that time failed, with both Israelis and Palestinians rejecting a framework agreement that might have served as a basis for a future final accord.

After the start of the Ukrainian crisis, the US and their allies in the West stopped cooperating with Russia within the framework of this quartet, and therefore, we have today’s dire situation, the pundit said.

The two-state solution, ostensibly supported by the international community and Biden reiterated in his November op-ed can be considered as a “guideline,” but "not a matter of the next 10 years,” Morozov argued.

Many humanitarian problems will need to be resolved, the current humanitarian crisis dealt with, and these issues will be uppermost after the end of the Israeli military operation.

Sectarian conflict among Palestinians is also a problem: Hamas not only controls the Gaza Strip but also has significant support in the West Bank, where the more moderate Fatah party controls the PA. Hamas does not recognize Israel’s right to exist, the expert noted.

“Washington is delusional if they expect that Israeli actions have killed the two-state solution,” Akbarzadeh stressed, but acknowledged that there were “no immediate or near future prospects" for that to materialize.