Tropical Storm Lee Likely to Turn Into 'Major Hurricane' by Week's End

Lee is the 13th named storm in the Atlantic this hurricane season. To date, only four other years on record have had 13 or more named storms by September 5: 2005, 2011, 2012 and 2020.

Forecasters are predicting that the recently-formed Tropical Storm Lee is expected to rapidly accelerate into a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of up to 145 miles per hour (MPH), effectively turning into a major cyclone by week's end.

Lee formed in the Atlantic Ocean over the week and is moving towards the Leeward Islands on the edge of the Caribbean and the Western edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Lee's current wind speed has reached up to 50 mph, an increase from 40 mph earlier Tuesday. That trend is expected to increase rapidly over the coming days until Lee becomes an “extremely dangerous” hurricane by Friday.

At present, most models predict Lee will skirt just north of the Leeward islands and turn eastward before making landfall in the United States. However, the models are not 100% confident that is the case, and a few scenarios result in Lee hitting Florida and the Carolinas in 7-10 days after plowing through several Caribbean islands, while a couple scenarios predict Lee could make landfall in the Northeast region of the United States in 10 to 12 days.

Vast majority of tracks for eventual Major Hurricane Lee are clustered into a "recurve" scenario well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, there are indeed some outliers that have a mind of their own. Until the rest join the outliers or the whole envelope of solutions drifts… pic.twitter.com/1I8eLYnO5t

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 5, 2023

Outliers should not be entirely discounted. In 2017, Hurricane Irma formed in the southern Atlantic Ocean and skirted along the line of the Caribbean and the Atlantic Ocean.

It was predicted to pull northwest and miss the United States, but a few outliers predicted it would make landfall in the United States and those outliers proved right. The Category 5 hurricane smashed into the Caribbean and the Southeastern US, causing over $77 billion in damage and at least 134 deaths.

Where Lee ends up largely depends on the Azores High, a semi-permanent high-altitude pressure that acts as a steering wheel for storms in the Atlantic Ocean. If it remains weaker, then Lee should turn northwest before it reaches the United States, but if the Azores High strengthens over the coming days it could push Lee West, making it a danger to the Caribbean and United States.