Here We Go Again: Chaos in Israel as Chances of Netanyahu Forming Government Appear Dim

Amid Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s pursuit of returning to Israel’s prime ministry, he has courted some of the most extreme right-wing groups that are legal in Israeli politics. However, Bibi’s dream may soon collapse amid the intransigent demands by two of the smaller parties in the coalition.

Netanyahu is facing a tough challenge from Religious Zionism chair Bezalel Smotrich and Otzma Yehudit head Itamar Ben-Gvir, with both men issuing heavy demands for portfolio assignments in his would-be government. According to Israeli media, many fear the prime minister-designate won’t be able to form a government by the deadline of next Wednesday.

Smotrich has demanded to be made defense minister and Ben-Gvir wants to be minister of transport, education, and the police. Their votes are a key part of Netanyahu’s thin majority: if they pull their support, the chances of him being able to find a new majority are slim.

According to reports in Israeli media on Friday, Likud has offered Smotrich the foreign affairs ministry, which he declined, and the finance ministry, albeit without some of its responsibilities.

“Smotrich’s demand for the defense portfolio is a legitimate demand that will allow the realization of full right-wing policies, the establishment of new settlements in Judea and Samaria, the approval of thousands of apartment units, ending [Palestinian] construction in Area C, and stopping the evacuation of [outposts],” Otzma Yehudit said in a statement.

At least part of Netanyahu’s hesitancy is likely due to American complaints about Smotrich being included in the coalition. According to media reports, Netanyahu told Smotrich that Israel must maintain a moderate policy while the Biden administration remains in office, as Washington has taken a stronger stance against Jewish settlement in the West Bank than previous administrations and opposed Israeli concerns internationally.

Ben-Gvir is expected to become Minister of Public Security, but there was no word about Bibi meeting his other demands. He has said he would only enter a government if Smotrich does as well, as the two ran together on a joint list.

However, Ben-Gvir said on Friday he now wants to separate Otzma Yehudit from Religious Zionism, forming a separate party in the Knesset.

Netanyahu was asked to form a government following a major right-wing victory in the Knesset elections earlier this month. While he was prime minister from 2009 until 2021, the later years of his government were beset with infighting and instability, with several elections being called as governments formed and fell apart.

A diverse coalition of parties came together in June 2021 after Yair Lapid, Netanyahu’s rival and the leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, was asked to form a government instead. That coalition also proved unstable, as its only uniting principle was avoiding a new Netanyahu government.

Netanyahu is still facing an ongoing trial over corruption accusations against him, which helped destroy confidence in his previous administration.