Reserve Bank Efforts to Attract Foreign Exchange Will Only Fend Off Rupee's Fall Temporarily: Expert

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India announced a series of measures, including relaxation on foreign investment in debt, external commercial borrowings, and Non-Resident Indian (NRI) deposits. The rupee has lost 6 percent of its value against the US dollar since January this year.

The Indian rupee has shrugged off its early gain of up to 0.5 percent on Thursday trading, as experts predicted more depreciation despite a slew of measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India to boost foreign exchange.

The rupee rose as much as 0.5 percent making the dollar worth 78.90, but it lost momentum in the afternoon, touching 79.255 per dollar in day trading.

"A few weeks back, the RBI tried to control the rupee's fall, but that proved to be short-lived. The measures announced by the RBI on Wednesday will temporarily hold the rupee's fall. Still, it will not last long as the demand-supply gap for the dollar is enormous," Devendra Kumar Mishra, a Delhi-based financial advisor, told Sputnik.

India's central bank exempted commercial banks from cash reserve ratio (CRR) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirements on foreign exchange deposits into these banks.

The RBI has also removed interest rate caps on deposits invested for more than a year, allowing commercial banks to offer higher interests on foreign currency bank accounts held by non-residents and non-resident external accounts.

Foreign portfolio investors, which removed around $33Bln from Indian equities since the beginning of the year, can now invest in India's short-term bond for less than a year without any limit.

Indian firms can also borrow up to $1.5Bln from foreign lenders, up from the previous $750Mln limit.

Ajay Seth, India's Economic Affairs secretary, said on Thursday that measures provide broad options for prospective investors that may assist the rupee against the dollar.

"We do expect the headwinds to subside over time. Considering the nature of challenges, the measures are also transitory," Seth said.

The RBI data showed that India's total external debt stands at $621Bln against foreign exchange reserves of $593.3Bln as of 24 June, 2022. Of this debt, India will have to pay $267.7Bln in less than a year, and $59.6Bln is due to be paid within the next one or two years. The remaining debt is scheduled to be paid after three years from now.

However, Parag Kar, vice-president of Government Affairs for India and South Asia at Qualcomm, says short-term debt repayment obligations have always been high - in the region of 40 to 45 percent.

"It doesn't matter whether debt obligations are at par or exceed forex reserves, since taking debt and paying up is a continuous process. Hence, we maintain that net outflow on account of this will be small in proportion to forex," Parag Kar said.

The RBI said it has stepped in as required in all segments to alleviate dollar tightness and ensure orderly market functioning. However, observers of currency markets see continued depreciation of the rupee.

"The rupee has strong technical support at 79.50 against a dollar," Anuj Gupta, vice-president of IIFL Securities, claims.

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