Israel's Opposition Pushes to Dissolve Parliament, But How Likely is That to Happen?

Betzalel Smotrich, the leader of the conservative Religious Zionist Party, has written to the chairman of the Knesset asking him to urgently convene a plenary to vote on the chamber's dissolution. If the move takes place, the bill will need to pass three readings before it becomes law, and will also require 61 votes.

After losing one party member and a majority in the Knesset, Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has managed to stabilise his coalition.

Talks have been held with other members of his party, reassurances have been given and Bennett made sure that his narrow and fragile coalition lives on. But the developments of the past couple of days have rocked the boat once again.

End of the Coalition?

Earlier this week, Raam — an Islamic party that gave outside support to the Bennett government — announced it would freeze its "membership" of the coalition and the Knesset. The move came as a protest against Israel's activity at the Haram A-Sherif compound in Jerusalem, where hundreds of Palestinians have been injured amid clashes with the security forces.

Israeli experts have already said that the move was purely symbolic and that it was aimed at placating Raam's pro-Palestinian voters. The Knesset is currently in recess, and the coalition does not need the Islamic party to pass bills or legislation — but that might change soon.

On Monday, the leader of the conservative Religious Zionist Party Betzalel Smotrich submitted an official letter to the chairman of the Knesset Miki Levy, asking him to gather all parliament's members for a plenary session where they would vote on the potential dissolution of the 24th Knesset.

"As you well know, after the departure of Raam, the coalition and the government don't have a majority," he wrote in his address to Levy. "In the current situation, we see a minority government that doesn't enjoy major support at the Knesset, thus harming Israel's democracy and its people".

Elections in the Air?

If Levy accepts Smotrich's request, the Knesset will be asked to vote on dissolving the parliament's. The bill will require three readings before the legislation is passed and becomes law, and from that point on Israel will have 90 days to hold legislative elections.

Getting there, however, will not be easy — primarily because Smotrich will need the support of 61 out of Knesset's 120 parliamentarians.

For now, he can count on the members of the opposition, whose number stand at 52 decision makers. He can also rely on the vote of Idit Silman, a defector who left Bennett's party earlier this month in a rejection of his policies. Apart from that Smotrich is unlikely to get any tangible support.

Raam — which holds four seats in the parliament and that currently boycotts the government — will not want to put an end to the current Knesset. In 2021, the Islamic party sealed a deal with Bennett to give his coalition much-needed support in exchange for generous cash injections into the Arab sector. And the general belief is that Mansour Abbas, the leader of Raam, would not want to give up on the flow of nearly $10 billion that was promised to him.

Other factions of the Knesset are not interested in elections either. Even though they do not share the same ideology and often have wide gaps between their outlook on Israel's most burning issues, they all have a common denominator. They all understand that going to polls might bring former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu back to power — something those parties would like to avoid.

Israel's public is not interested in elections either. After four rounds of polls and years of political instability, an absence of the national budget and heavy spending on election campaigns, Israelis want to see stability.

A recent poll — conducted by one of Israel's leading newspapers — revealed that 58 percent of Israelis do not want to see the nation go to the polls again. But the truth of the matter is the country might not have a choice.

Even if Smotrich fails to collect enough votes to dissolve the Knesset, it might fall apart by itself, and as soon as it returns from recess. The coalition will struggle to pass legislation without a majority at the chamber, and that impasse will end up undermining the public support.

That public support is already diminishing. A March survey revealed that 58 percent of Israelis felt the current government was not coping well with the fragile security situation. 66 percent said they were displeased with the way the Bennett bloc handled the economic crisis in the country.

Right now, Bennett is trying to do business as usual. He tries to underline his government’s achievements and promises that his coalition will keep on functioning despite the recent hiccups.

The question, however, is whether he actually believes it.