In November, the dollar lost nearly 50 kopecks against the ruble falling from 28.7651 rubles on November 1 to 28.2659 rubles on November 26.
On the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (Micex), the dollar lost about 40 kopecks against the ruble since November 17 and about a ruble since the beginning of the year.
Experts believe that the reason the dollars has fallen against the ruble in November is because the dollar is weakening against other currencies (by the end of the year of the euro could reach $1.35, as opposed to $1.32-$1.33 currently) and high oil prices. High oil prices have led to a surplus of currency on the Russian currency market from revenues from the sale and export of oil.
The pressure on the dollar in Russia increases because of the weakening of the dollar on world markets has become a stable trend in the medium-term (for about a year) and the Central Bank has stopped containing the strengthening of the ruble, the experts believe.
"The medium-term outlook for the dollar are depressing," said Valery Vaisberg, an analyst from the Region group of companies. "It can be expected that in 2005 the dollar will continue to weaken and the ruble will strengthen."
"The situation on the currency market is becoming ever more alarming for the Russian citizens," Olga Belenkaya, an analyst at the Olma investment firm, said, "because a considerable part of their savings is still in dollars." According to her, the risk of further losses from dollar savings has resulted in weakening the demand for cash.
According to the Central Bank, demand for foreign currency in September fell 7% to $5.4 billion as compared to August.
"Savings in rubles are becoming more popular," Mr. Vaisberg said. "And now the amount of ruble accounts in banks is rather high."
According to the Central Bank, as of September 1, 2004, savings in rubles were approximately three times greater than foreign currency savings and about 1.5 times greater than a year ago. At the same time, currency deposits have increased by13.6%, to 762 billion rubles and ruble deposits have increased 48.8% to 1.52 trillion rubles.
Nevertheless, the experts said they did not expect a serious decrease in the dollar's share of currency savings in Russia.
"The stronger the ruble gets, the more it causes concern," Alfa Bank's chief economist Natalia Orlova said. She said that the strengthening of ruble was connected to high oil prices.
Ms. Orlova said that a third of Russians' savings were in dollars and that by the end of the year it could fall insignificantly to 25%. At the same time, she said the portion of savings in euros would not significantly increase.
She said hard currency had never been popular in Russia, that there was not a sufficiently large enough euro market in Russia, and the bank deposit rates in euros were not high.
"Today it is more advantageous to keep money in rubles because the market is very volatile," Ms. Orlova said.
Ms. Belenkaya said the amount of dollars in Russia was high, according to different estimates between $40 billion and $80 billion.
"To decrease risks from currency," she said, "it would be expedient to diversify savings by increasing savings in rubles and euros."
According to Mr. Vaisberg, the make up of currency savings would be changing, but the dollar will still be popular. "As the dollar weakens, like with interest rates, it is more advantageous to take loans in the American currency, not the European," he said. "By taking out loans in dollars, a person will obviously prefer to partially save it in dollars to repay it."
