"It seems to me that Yanukovich is likely to win," Politika Fund President Vyacheslav Nikonov said at a Wednesday press conference in Moscow. He believes Ukraine is in for a stormy ending of the election campaign.
In the opinion of Sergei Markov, director of the Political Studies Institute, Yanukovich's victory depends, in particular, on how the votes of the Communists and Socialists will be distributed, on the voter turnout in the east and south and the resolution of the issue of the constitutional reform in the country.
"Yanukovich's main reserve is to increase the turnout in the country's east and south and hold the constitutional reform as soon as possible, which will make it possible for Yanukovich to ease pressure of other groups of the population," said Mr. Markov.
He noted that Socialists' leader Moroz was a supporter of the constitutional reform, and in case of its holding Moroz's votes would go to Yanukovich. Two thirds of votes for Communists' leader Simonenko will also go to Yanukovich, and one third to Yushchenko.
On his part, Konstantin Zatulin, the director of the CIS Institute, believes that votes can be cast for Yanukovich as well because he is ready to back the status of the Russian language in Ukraine.
"This is important not only for Russia, but for the Russian minority in Ukraine," said Mr. Zatulin. At the same time, political scientists do not rule out that events might follow the Tbilisi or Belgrade scenario.
"Attempts to hold a 'chestnut' [like Georgia's 'revolution of roses'] or other revolution are inevitable. They have been just postponed until the second round," believes Mr. Zatulin.
