The alarming figures come from Transatlantic Partners against AIDS, an independent Russian-US NGO. Its spokesmen addressed media people in Moscow today to offer a paper on an AIDS/HIV epidemic in Russia, which evaluated current developments and made forecasts.
99 per cent of present-day HIV carriers have been diagnosed within the preceding five years-almost all of able-bodied age and at the peak of reproductive age. Men in the 15-39 age bracket make more than 70 per cent. Carriers and AIDS patients no longer stay within the underworld limits of drug addicts, gays and prostitutes. Contagion through heterosexual contacts made 12 per cent of the total, 2002, as against 3 per cent in 2000.
Patients and carriers are registered throughout Russia, though the ten best-developed areas account for 70 per cent. Thus, Moscow and its environs have close on 43,000 HIV carriers, and St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region round it more than 29,000. The Urals' heart-the Sverdlovsk Region and Yekaterinburg, its centre-comes next with 23,000. The Samara Region on the Volga has 20,000, and South Siberia's Irkutsk Region 16,000.
The spreading disease may badly hit the Russian Armed Forces, warns the paper. A mere 600 to 700 thousand boys will be healthy enough for conscription as soon as 2020. A shrinking army may thwart Russian efforts to bridle terrorism, drug trafficking, and illegal migrations.
Economic developments are in an equal danger. The AIDS epidemic threatens to cut Russia's gross domestic product by 4 per cent, 2010, and by more than 10 per cent, another ten years later. Meanwhile, even a token production shrinkage and economic progress dropping pace will badly undermine Russia's ability to compete developed countries.
Total government allocations on anti-AIDS efforts make US$97 million for 2002 into 2006. The programme is entitled to $48 million out of a five-year World Bank target loan to combat HIV and TB. A global foundation to combat AIDS, TB and malaria has approved two grants, $89 and 120 million. International donors and the Russian government are major success in their talks, which shows that Russia is really anxious to cope-but all grants and allocations are a mere drop in the ocean, considering the huge sums it will take to fight back the horrible disease. To sum up its conclusions, the paper emphatically calls to boost federal target allocations.
