By approving the plan to withdraw from Gaza and the West Bank, the ruling Cabinet has found itself in a stalemate, Feldman said, adding that he could see no ways out of this situation.
This, however, does not mean that the Sharon government's days are numbered, remarked the analyst. The refusal by left and center-left parties to speak against Mr Sharon at parliamentary debates is just one fact indicating that the incumbent PM has some chance of survival. The Premier's policy is such that left and center-left parties chose to give him a safety net, Feldman said. Under Israeli laws, the ruling Cabinet may be dissolved only if 61 members of Knesset (Parliament) vote in favor and if there is a strong candidate to take over. According to our interviewee, the Israeli Opposition has neither the support of as many MPs nor any concrete alternative to Sharon.
As many as 59 Knesset members are now standing by the incumbent, but the alignment of forces may change any minute, Feldman said.
One serious trial for Mr Sharon will be the possible entry into the coalition government of the Avoda party, led by Shimon Peres. Current inter-partisan talks suggest that the possibility is a likely one. This move may lead to a split both in Avoda and in Sharon's Likud, as leaders of these two parties hold clashing views.
"Should Avoda become part of the national unity government, this will lead to dramatic changes in the alignment of political forces in the country, but will not deliver the ruling coalition from the threat o early elections," Feldman pointed out.
To quote him, "the Sharon government resembles a boat that has lost of its oars-she can still go straight, but cannot make a slightest maneuver sideways."
The situation will reach its peak early this fall as Knesset takes up social and budgetary issues, Feldman predicted. Sharon will become unable to make a single decision going beyond his Disengagement Plan and the opposition parties Avoda and Yahad, who gave him a safety net in June, may then try to topple him and his Cabinet, the analyst said.
According to our interviewee, September and October will be a "fateful period" for the Sharon Cabinet. Only the Premier's maneuvering capacity may help him avoid an early election, Feldman believes.
