Analysts Explain Why Taliban Enjoys 'Critical Legitimacy' and How Its Win Sets a Dangerous Precedent

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is expected to resign within hours amid reports that the Taliban is interested in a peaceful transition of power in the country and is already celebrating victory. But the big question is: what might this "success" mean for Afghanistan?

The international community "might want to keep the Taliban on board rather than treat it as a pariah" if the terrorist group seizes power in Afghanistan, says Dr Amalendu Misra, senior lecturer in Politics, Philosophy, and Religion at Lancaster University in the UK.

The capital Kabul remains the last major Afghan city under the government's control, with the Taliban already capturing all of Afghanistan's major cities and border crossings. The insurgents are currently in talks with the authorities on a peaceful transition of power in the country.

According to Misra, even though world leaders "might find it unpalatable to do business with the Taliban", one cannot not deny that the insurgents enjoy a "certain critical legitimacy".

The analyst pointed to the terrorist group being involved in several rounds of peace talks with Washington and other players in the Doha talks that ended with a peace deal between the Taliban and the US in early 2020. The agreement stipulated the US withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan in exchange for a number of concessions from the militants.  

The political scientist argued that given Afghanistan's strategic geography and supposed mineral wealth, "the [Taliban] regime would have no problem establishing links with other neighbouring powers such as China and Pakistan".

Prisoners leaving Kabul jail after being broken out by Taliban. pic.twitter.com/B84F2UrtEA

— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) August 15, 2021

He went on to assert that "there was something of an inevitability" when it comes to the Taliban's "consolidation of power" because the Afghan government "never really had complete control over Afghanistan".

"Thanks to the [US-led] coalition forces, it [the government] ruled and survived all these years. That the Taliban is making a spectacular comeback to claim power goes on to suggest that it never had lost its links with the masses all these years. Its victory should be seen as much a victory of the masses", the analyst insisted.

No End of War After Afghan Government Falls, Analyst Predicts

Shreyas D. Deshmukh, a research associate at the Delhi Policy Group, for his part, suggested that "the war will not end with the Taliban takeover of Kabul", meaning that "another chapter of instability" will begin.

"The international community [has] repeatedly stated that they will not recognise the enforced Taliban Islamic Emirate, but after all, it is too naive to expect that the Taliban can be deterred with such a statement", Deshmukh said, adding that many regional nations are concerned about "the idea of the victory of an extremist organisation that could go on to endorse other terrorist organisations to walk its path in the future".

The analyst predicted that the Taliban, who "does not have the governance capacity", will be unable to "sustain [itself] for long but will continue to fight to find its place". According to Deshmukh, it will prod regional countries "to shelve their economic projects such as North-South Connectivity and increase protection for already completed projects such as the BRI [the Belt and Road Initiative] in the Central Asian Region".

Taliban militants waving a Taliban flag on the back of a pickup truck drive past a crowded street at Pashtunistan Square area in Jalalabad, Afghanistan in this still image taken from social media video uploaded on August 15, 2021. Social media website/via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.

© REUTERS / SOCIAL MEDIA WEBSITE

"We may see once again a proxy war and many conspiracy theories polluting the environment in the coming days. The conflict zone economy was already flourishing in the country. That will provide safe havens for extremist entities which will raise the imminent threat for Central Asia, China, and India", the research associate argued.

Last week saw joint military drills by Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan that were conducted near the Afghan border and involved a total of 2,500 servicemen.

Deshmukh additionally asserted that breaking "the Taliban's momentum" is a "very difficult" task, which is why "all the countries" and the Afghan government "should concentrate on saving lives and limiting bloodshed", while "other political issues can be dealt with later".

Afghan Interior Minister May Be Appointed Head of Transitional Team

Taliban fighters, who have already surrounded Kabul, are urging Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other world leaders to work together.

The Taliban claimed its rapid gains across the country showed it was popularly accepted by the Afghan people, and reassured both Afghans and foreigners that they would be safe.

As foreign diplomats are rushing to leave the country amid fears of a violent takeover, the Islamic Emirate, as the Taliban calls itself, insisted neither diplomats nor aid workers would face any retaliation.

In the meantime, former Afghan Interior Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali is expected to be appointed head of the country's transitional team as the clock is ticking for President Ghani to step down.

*The Taliban is a terrorist group banned in Russia and a number of other countries.