Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by three percentage points among registered voters in the battleground state of North Carolina, a Monmouth University poll said on Tuesday.
Biden leads with a 49-46 percent margin among all registered voters, with the former vice president’s lead increasing to 4 points in a high turnout scenario and shrinking to 1 percent if voter participation is low, the release said.
"There has been some shifting within the electorate but the overall picture remains the same – another tight presidential contest in North Carolina. Basically, it looks like Trump has been locking in his base at the expense of swing voter support," Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said in a press release explaining the poll.
The previous Monmouth poll taken in September had Biden ahead by two points.
Each of the last three presidential elections were decided by fewer than four percentage points in North Carolina, the release added. Trump won the state in 2016 with a 3.7 percent margin. Both campaigns are concentrating on so called battleground states such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio, crucial to obtaining the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Biden is up 2.7% in North Carolina on average in the most recent six surveys posted on Realcleapolitics.com (RCP), which includes Tuesday's Monmouth poll. The former vice president is ahead by more than 10% in the RCP average, and leads in 8 of the top ten largest swing states. However, Biden's lead in four of those 8 states is within a typical margin of error range.
Electoral votes are allocated to individual states based on their representation in Congress, a system that makes it possible for a candidate to win the presidency without winning the nationwide popular vote, as with Trump’s 2016 victory.
