The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University in Camden, Connecticut, shows Trump exceeding Clinton by 3 points in Florida, 42% to 39%, 2 points in Pennsylvania, 43% to 41% (Pennsylvania hasn’t voted for a Republican since the 1988 Presidential election), and in Ohio the race is tied 41% to 41%.
Sam Sak’s of Radio Sputnik’s District Sentinel remarked on Wednesday, "Newsflash folks: assuming that the electoral map holds elsewhere, if Trump wins those three states, he’s going to win the election."
Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio at 40% to 40% on Quinnipiac’s last poll on June 21 as well. Clinton led Florida 47% to 39% and Pennsylvania by only one point, 42% to 41%.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 14, 2016
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll commented that "Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio."
One possible explanation for Clinton’s drop in numbers among those who participated in the survey is her recent email scandal. Although criminal charges were not brought against her, the negative publicity may have affected her credibility. Brown said, "While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department’s decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty."
Survey respondents in the swing states agreed with the statement, "The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change," according to the poll. The survey results indicated that while voters feel Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and may even be better suited to be President, Trump edges her out for having "higher moral standards." He was able to widen his lead by being more "honest and trustworthy."
Florida voters said that Trump would be better at creating jobs, addressing immigration and more effective in fighting Daesh.
Ohio’s result also tended toward the conservative, agreeing with the statement that, "the government has gone too far in assisting minority groups," though, interestingly, respondents also felt that "Prejudice against minority groups is a big problem in the United States today."
Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, noted gender disparities among Pennsylvania voters. "As she battles for every vote in a tight race with Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has to look at the erosion of support from women as a red flag in a blue state that could carry one of the candidates to the White House," he said.
Brian Fallon, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign tweeted, "we know the battlegrounds are going to be close til the end. That's why we need to keep working so hard. Trump is a serious danger, folks."
Responding to the poll results, the Clinton campaign released the ad below:
The ad uses Donald Trump’s own words to paint him as a bad role model for kids.