Schoen pointed to the shrinking lead held by the former Secretary of State, who in recent polls has been within margins of error ahead of her opponent, at times by only 2%. He also noted that there are 1.5 million newly-registered Democratic voters in California since January 1, and that the primary is semi-open, both very good signs for a win by the Vermont Senator.
“A Sanders win in California would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clinton’s weakness as a candidate in the general election. Democratic superdelegates—chosen by the party establishment and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44—would seriously question whether they should continue to stand behind her candidacy,” Schoen wrote.
When it comes to the superdelegates, if Sanders wins California he will have a very good case at the convention to motion for them to vote with their states, the statistician added.
It is also unwise to assume that these delegates have not noticed that Sanders is the only candidate who is consistently beating Republican Donald Trump in the polls, and by double digits at that. Clinton, when she polls ahead of Trump, does so by very weak margins--one or two percentage points--with some showing her losing to the reality-tv star.
Despite Clinton’s consistent denial that she previously broke rules by using a personal email server for official state business, a report from the State Department inspector general claims the opposite was true, making it far less likely that she will survive an FBI investigation politically unscathed. This is sure to raise eyebrows within a base containing many who already find her to be an unfavorable candidate.
“With Mrs. Clinton reportedly soon to be interviewed by the FBI, suggesting that the investigation is winding up, a definitive ruling by the attorney general could be issued before the July 25 Democratic convention in Philadelphia. Given the inspector general’s report, a clean bill of health from the Justice Department is unlikely,” Schoen continued.
While Clinton’s campaign has been called lackluster, relying on a Democratic base to find her less unelectable than Trump, the Sanders campaign has energized the younger vote, and at greater levels than the unprecedented 2008 campaign to elect Barack Obama. Perhaps it is time for the Democratic Party to snap out of their denial.