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    Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Eugene, Oregon, U.S. on May 6, 2016

    ‘Time to Panic’ - Trump Moves Ahead of Clinton in Latest Polling

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    On Monday, a poll conducted by Real Clear Politics (RCP) showed presumptive Republican nominee Donald J. Trump ahead of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the national polling average for the first time.

    The New York billionaire is shown to be ahead of Clinton, by 0.2 points between May 13-19. These result align with two national polls, one by the Washington Post and ABC News, and another by NBC and the Wall Street Journal, showing the two candidates neck and neck. The Washington Post/ ABC News polls claimed that Clinton and Trump were in a "statistical dead heat." 

    Notably, the Wall Street Journal/NBC had the former First Lady and the New York real estate magnate showing the highest negative ratings in the poll’s history.

    The RCP poll also showed underdog Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont, topping both Clinton and Trump, with 43% holding a positive view of him and 36% a negative view. Sanders maintains a double-digit lead over Trump.

    Another recent poll by Data Targeting, found that 58% of their respondents are dissatisfied with Clinton and Trump as candidates. Some 55% said they would prefer a third-party ticket in the 2016 presidential election, and 65% expressed willingness to vote for a candidate other than Clinton or Trump. 

    These findings come as primaries are soon to close, and the Republican and Democrat parties focus support around their presumptive nominees. While Republican voters are generally split over whether Trump should be the nominee, Clinton shows a higher Democratic rate of approval, as respondents view her as having the personality and experience necessary to be an effective president.

    Mona Chalabi, data editor for The Guardian, feels that too much trust is placed in polls, and suggests that a study of electoral maps would make a better thermometer with which take the country’s political temperature. She offered that the wide variety of methods used in gathering data for polls make it difficult to gauge their accuracy.

    "These polls have different results in part because they use different methodologies for assessing public opinion," Chalabi wrote, adding,"Although they were all conducted during a relatively similar period of time (which is essential when trying to get a snapshot of what the public thinks now), the polls by NBC/WSJ and Fox News only spoke to registered voters, Rasmussen interviewed 'likely voters', while the ABC News/Washington Post poll simply spoke to adults (82% of whom were registered voters)."

    "All polls claim to speak to a ‘nationally representative’ sample of adults," she said, "but virtually none will publish data showing where their respondents were based…Perhaps Rasmussen Reports had to adjust their findings to account for the fact that they only managed to speak to two people in Iowa – we just don’t know." 

    Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RCP tweeted yesterday in response to the poll that, "it’s probably time to panic."

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    Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Real Clear Politics, Polls, Real Clear Politics, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, United States
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