The UK will maintain its place as the world’s 5th largest economy in 2021, despite its departure from the European Union and the economic damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
The study, which is released annually by the organisation, also says that Brexit will not hinder the UK from being one of the world’s stronger performing economies into the next 15 years. Furthermore, the report says that Britain will remain economically stronger than keystone EU state, France, and will likely go on to widen that gap as the UK technology sector continues to burgeon.
“We expect the trend rate of growth for the UK to be 4.0% annually from 2021-25 and 1.8% annually from 2026-30 and 1.8% annually from 2031-35,” the organisation claims. "The UK economy continues to be one of the better performers in Europe despite Brexit … By 2035, UK GDP in dollars is forecast to be 40% more than that of France, its long-standing rival and neighbour,” they add.
Happy Boxing Day aka #WELT publication day. @Cebr_uk’s annual world economic league table forecasting 193 countries to 2035 is out today. Full report: https://t.co/5ReS1Y3sPV pic.twitter.com/ekwFAZ5lZg— Nina Skero (@NinaSkero) December 26, 2020
The study and its figures will likely be pointed to by advocates of Britain’s departure from the EU to dispel the arguments of Remainers that the UK will be an economically reduced force outside of the EU.
"People often forget that the UK’s largest economic sector is digital and creative,” Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of the CEBR and an author of the study, is widely quoted as saying.
“We have a huge competitive advantage in this tech-based sector which the pandemic has kicked forward. Most of this is pretty Brexit-proof provided the UK continues to attract talented people,” Mr McWilliams added.
Globally, the chief economist has high hopes for economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic, forecasting 5.3 percent growth in 2021.
“We think that when the vaccine rolls out, the world economy could bounce back quickly. My colleagues have calculated about £200 billion of savings in the UK as a result of the pandemic that is waiting to be spent. There will be similar build-ups of savings elsewhere.”
After many months of fraught negotiations between the UK and the EU on the the terms of a post-Brexit trade deal, an agreement was reached on December 24. During a press conference that followed the securing of the deal, Boris Johnson proclaimed that his government had made "a comprehensive Canada-style deal."
"I'm very pleased to tell you this afternoon that we have completed the biggest trade deal yet, worth £660 billion a year, a comprehensive Canada-style free-trade deal between the UK and the EU," Johnson revealed.
“We have today resolved a question that has bedevilled our politics for decades. It is up to us all together as a newly and truly independent nation to realise the immensity of this moment and to make the most of it," the Prime Minister added.
For her part, the EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, called the deal "fair, balanced and right"
"It was a long and winding road. But we have got a good deal to show for it," Ms. von der Leyen said at a press conference, also on December 24. "A lot was at stake for so many people, so this was an agreement that we absolutely had to fight for," she added.