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PM Johnson Top Aide's Resignation May Trigger Profound Changes in No 10 Power Dynamics, Prof Says

© AP Photo / Matt DunhamBritish Prime Minister Boris Johnson walks with Britain's Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack, left, into Downing Street, after attending a cabinet meeting at the Foreign Office in London on 21 July 2020. The countries which top the rankings of COVID-19 deaths globally are led by populist, mold-breaking leaders such as Johnson. The US, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Mexico all are led by leaders who have been sceptical of the scientists and who initially dismissed the disease. And their four countries alone account for half of the total 585,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide so far, according to statistics tracked by Johns Hopkins University.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson walks with Britain's Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack, left, into Downing Street, after attending a cabinet meeting at the Foreign Office in London on 21 July 2020. The countries which top the rankings of COVID-19 deaths globally are led by populist, mold-breaking leaders such as Johnson. The US, Brazil, the United Kingdom and Mexico all are led by leaders who have been sceptical of the scientists and who initially dismissed the disease. And their four countries alone account for half of the total 585,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide so far, according to statistics tracked by Johns Hopkins University. - Sputnik International
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UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's top aide, Lee Cain, announced on Wednesday that he would quit after government ministers reportedly protested over his promotion to chief of staff. Alex de Ruyter, a professor at Birmingham City University, has explained the government reshuffle and its potential consequences for Johnson's strategic course.

The British media regards Lee Cain's resignation as much more than a random political gesture given that the former director of communications was Johnson's longest serving aide.

According to the Guardian, tensions have been growing for quite a while with Tories becoming disenchanted with No 10 "excluding" them from the decision-making process. For its part, The Independent has raised the question as to whether Cain's long-standing ally Dominic Cummings, the architect of Brexit, will follow suit.

Second COVID Lockdown Has Poured Gasoline on Fire

"Two factors are behind this", Alex de Ruyter, a professor at Birmingham City University, says about Boris Johnson’s top aide resigning. "One is internal arguing in No 10: a number were bitterly opposed to Cain including, allegedly, Johnson’s fiancée. The second major factor is his relative unpopularity among many Conservative MPs. Cain is seen as being close to Dominic Cummings and a supporter of the present 'lockdown'. This counts against him in the minds of many Tories".

Earlier this month, the House of Commons approved Boris Johnson’s plan for a one-month second coronavirus lockdown in England, despite 34 Tories vocally opposing the decision. US conservatives consider the COVID-related restrictions as a threat to the already weakened British economy. This week, Tory MPs urged the Government to end the second lockdown before the 2 December target.

Potential 'Change in Power Dynamics in No 10'

While the political struggle over COVID-related measures continues, Cain's resignation appears to be "very significant", according to de Ruyter.

"Certainly [Cain] is someone who has had Johnson’s ear and was tipped for a very senior role," the academic says. "More interesting will be what happens to Dominic Cummings. If he decides to follow Cain then that would prompt a hugely significant change in the power dynamics in No 10".

The drama unfolding at No 10 indicates that the Johnson cabinet is facing a dilemma over the direction the Government should take, according to the New Statesman. The British political weekly magazine suggests that Johnson may adopt a "2008-2016 liberalist playbook" in case Team Cummings steps down, adding, however, that the premier will nevertheless remain a Eurosceptic. Johnson puts "Brexit before both his social and ideological ties to the Cameron project in 2016 and his Foreign Office post in 2018", the media outlet suggests.

​Alex de Ruyter agrees that neither Cain's resignation nor Cabinet reshuffles are likely to affect Johnson's "hard" Brexit strategy.

"At this point it’s unlikely," the professor says. "Cain was a vociferous 'leaver' but it is unlikely that his departure will change anything in terms of the UK’s negotiations with the EU."

It is said that Cain's job of director of communications will be taken by James Slack, Downing Street's current spokesman, which will probably result in more of the same, according to the academic.

"Slack is already a senior member of the team," he notes. "Like Cain, he has been outspoken on the issue of the EU."

It is a given that Cain is unlikely to be offered any significant position in the UK Government after stepping down, says de Ruyter, commenting on the former Mirror journalist's fate. Nevertheless, Johnson's former top aide continues to be well connected with close links to the premier's Cabinet, according to the professor.

"No doubt he will go onto a senior role – either in the press or in communications elsewhere", de Ruyter concludes.

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