"It is noteworthy that the commodity market is currently very volatile. Three countries are actively increasing production, Libya, Nigeria and the United States. This additional supply of oil in the market surely poses very serious risks. That is why the assumption to preserve the three-year forecast level of $40 per barrel in real terms looks more justified," Oreshkin said at a government meeting on Thursday.
In recent weeks, rising US shale production has been outweighing output cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members, pressuring oil prices. Brent oil futures fell to a seven-month-low of $44.37 per barrel on June 21, but have since recovered in a seven-day win streak to trade above $48 per barrel on Thursday amid a reported decline in US oil production in the week that ended June 23.