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Russia’s GDP May Fall 5.3-5.8% in 2015 – Central Bank Forecast

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Russia's GDP may decrease by 5.3-5.8 percent this year, but is expected to grow by 0.5 percent next year and by 2-2.5 percent in 2017, according to the Central Bank annual report.

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Russian Inflation to Hit Single Digits After 2015 - Central Bank Deputy
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia may lose between 5.3 to 5.8 percent of its GDP this year if the Urals oil price falls below $40-$45 per barrel, the Russian Central Bank said in its forecast Friday.

The GDP is expected to grow by 0.5 percent next year and by 2 to 2.5 percent in 2017 with the price at $40-45, the Central Bank said in its annual report.

However, with the price at $50-$55 the GDP will decrease by 3.5 to 4 percent this year, will lose another 1 tp1.6 percent next year and increase by 5.5 to 6.3 percent in 2017, the report says.

Meanwhile, the net capital outflow from Russia is expected to be $111 billion in 2015, according to a report by the Bank of Russia.

The report also forecasts an outflow of $89 billion from the country in 2016 and $80 billion in 2017, with an estimated average global oil price of $50-55 per barrel in 2015 and $60-65 in 2016.

Earlier in January, Russia's Ministry of Economic Development in its revised economic forecast said that it expects GDP to shrink by three percent in 2015 and inflation to hit 12 percent with oil prices at $50 a barrel.

Following a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November 2014 to keep oil production volumes unchanged, global oil prices have steadily declined. While in summer 2014 oil cost about $110 per barrel, the price of one barrel is now worth $56.

Falling oil prices have caused economic difficulties in Russia, which is heavily reliant on energy exports.

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