Ties between the two have been strained ever since PACE suspended Moscow’s membership privileges in response to Crimea’s reunification with Russia. Observers at the time noted that this was likely due to overwhelming American pressure on the EU, and Washington scored a short-term victory in contributing to the rapid deterioration of Russian-EU relations during that time. However, the global geostrategic context has remarkably shifted in the three years since that happened, and while bilateral relations between Russia and the most of the Council of Europe’s members leave a lot to still be desired, they aren’t exactly as bad as ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, so hope has always remained that they could improve if the international conditions were right.
That’s exactly what seems ready to happen, in fact, since 2017 is the first year in the Trump and Brexit eras. The US seems poised to reconsider its disastrous policies towards Russia under President Trump, consequently raising the prospect that Washington and Moscow could enter into a New Détente in the New Cold War, the effects of which could be a dramatic improvement in EU-Russian relations as well. This is because, as many observers have poignantly noted, the EU typically follows in lockstep with the US’ dictates, so it’s natural to assume that Brussels might return Moscow’s membership privileges if Washington gives the signal. PACE, however, is just one of many avenues for potential Russian-EU reconciliation and cooperation in 2017, and the broader trend isn’t just that bilateral relations could improve through the framework of this particular organization, but that the overall relationship could be restarted during this pivotal year. There’s no need to jump to conclusions just yet and pretend that this will definitely happen, but it’s equally unnecessary to discount this possibility given how promising the forthcoming year might be.
In this episode of Trendstorm Andrew Korybko is joined by Koen Van Dessel, Belgian activist from the #istandwithrussia campaign.
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