The concern is that the leader of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s most important country is angry at the US for Washington’s stance on key issues like Iran and Yemen. If there is indeed a split between the two allies, this would of course have far-reaching reverberations that might lead to unexpected results. On the other hand, some say that their strategic collaboration is deeper than meets the eye, and that when one looks at the substance of their relationship, nothing has actually changed, nor likely will.
Fyodor Voitolovsky, Deputy Director at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (studio guest), Andrew Hammond, Middle East analyst, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and author of “The Islamic Utopia — The Illusion of Reform in Saudi Arabia”, Iyad Khuder, Syrian journalist and Afraa Dagher, Syrian political activist commented on the issue.
What’s your take on this? Is a snub or is it not a snub?
Fyodor Voitolovsky: I think I will more agree with Sergei’s position and I think that during the last two or three years, during this very turbulent period of relations between the United States and their partners in the Gulf, a lot of them, especially including Saudi Arabia, are very annoyed and were very disappointed with many things that Obama’s administration did, especially with the Iranian deal, with the situation in Syria, the situation in Yemen. They were very upset and concerned about ISIS activity, and they still are – and ISIS gene is out of the bottle for the Saudis because they invested a lot into radical activity in the region but now they are suffering from it. And they are involved in his operation against ISIS and I think that for the United States, it was the principle goal to show their partners in the region that they are still respecting the obligations they used to have for them. And they can still give them protection, and they can still give them support, but not too much and not as much as you were expecting in the future.
We were just discussing the latest reports that I read online that Saudi Arabia is now talking about enriching uranium to the same level as Iran, and this is coming on the heels of the GCC summit in Washington. Do you think this is a bargaining chip? That there is more to it? Could the US assist with this or is this just a lot of hot air and a rumor to not pay attention to?
Andrew Hammond: I think for the moment its kind of part of the rhetoric that Saudi Arabia has been using from a quite a while now, I mean, it’s not the first time that they say this. As of two years ago in 2013 when we came with the idea of, when we first heard the news about some kind of breakthrough between the Americans and Iran, they were also using this kind of talk, and there was lot of kind of heavy rhetoric that was put out there suggesting that Saudi Arabia would fundamentally re-arrange its relations with the Americans and look for someone else for as a patron instead. I mean, I don’t think that can be taken seriously. The relation is far too historical, far too close, and far too important for both parties for anything like that to happen, so I think that these two countries are going to stay very good friends for the time to come, for many years to come probably. And for that reason I think this just some kind of talk which shouldn’t be taken seriously like that because there is nothing to it. But I think Saudi Arabia wouldn’t go too far to going against the United States or something like this because the relationship is far too important fundamentally. If they didn’t really need the Americans for their continuous security, we wouldn’t even have anyone there in America right now in Camp David talking to them.
We are wondering, does it matter than Salman didn’t go, I mean, after all, he sent the crown prince and deputy crown prince, one of whom is the defense minister. Some people say that those two are really running the show in Saudi Arabia.
Iyad Khuder: Yes, this is logical. You know, there is a covert struggle or race to the crown between the princes so it might be that the Saudi King is afraid that he’ll lose his power if he leaves, so this is also logical. And here I’d like to say something, that I spent one hour trying to memorize the names of the Saudi Princes because is complicated even for me, and I speak Arabic…. This is really unique, the situation in Saudi Arabia or let me say the US-backed ally in the region, because it has around tens of thousands of princes – can you imagine?
We are discussing King Salman and his decision not to visit Washington DC – Do you think this will worsen American-Saudi ties or do these countries still remain as close as ever?
Afraa Dagher: Well, absolutely not, it is not going to worsen the relations between Saudi Arabia or any other GCC countries and the USA, and the US National Security Council declared that they are looking forward to the attendance of the Crown Prince and it’s Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed and his deputy, to the meeting which was led by the White House, and that means that the USA is trying to play down any problems between the White House and the GCC countries. That is very logical because Saudi Arabia is the dog of their interests, and just like Israel, it’s a step-daughter of the USA.
