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Political Emotions Get in the Way of Rational Policies on Ukraine

Political Emotions Get in the Way of Rational Policies on Ukraine
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Why have the EU ministers stopped short of introducing sanctions against Russia? Could it be that they finally realized that sanctions are wrong and talking, not bullying, might work better? Radio Sputnik is discussing it with Judy Dempsey of Carnegie Europe and Jacques Sapir, ÉHÉSS, France.

When it comes to Ukraine, US policy often defies common sense, not only stalling negotiations, but creating problems even for the US’ allies. Sanctions against Russia make another perfect example.

This Monday EU foreign ministers went to Brussels to discuss further steps after Donetsk and Lugansk had held elections on November, 2, and proceeded with setting their own governing bodies, despite West claims that the vote was illegal.

The ministers agreed to put more names on the EU sanctions list, freezing these persons’ assets and banning them from travelling to EU. However, they could not agree on new economic sanctions against Russia.

Why would the EU be divided over something that seems so obvious to Western policy-makers?

Says Judy Dempsey, a nonresident senior associate at Carnegie Europe and editor in chief of Strategic Europe:

First of all, there is a consensus now, as we saw, among the 28 member states that the diplomatic track is actually going nowhere, but it still has to be worked out if they agree on what kind of further sanctions are to be imposed on Russia. They can’t agree on this at the moment.

Why not?

Judy Dempsey: For two reasons. They want to see the effect of the first line of sanctions. And some of the member states want to know if President Putin really going to try to influence what is happening in the eastern Ukraine, meaning – is the ceasefire really in tatters. And when you look at all the reports coming out, you certainly get an impression that the ceasefire agreed upon in Minsk is over. So, the Europeans now have to take stock of this.

There is one thing you should remember, I mean, it does take quite a long time for 28 ministers to agree on things. And when it comes to sanctions, clearly, this goes back to the government leaders. The foreign ministers discuss it, but at the end of the day you also need the consensus of the governments. So, the sanctions are not an easy thing to just impose overnight.

Yes, of course! However, as far as I remember, the Polish Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetyna, said after the meeting that the divergence between different EU countries over what happens in Ukraine has become greater. 

Judy Dempsey: I couldn’t see the Polish Foreign Minister’s comments, but I was actually surprised, because now the Hungarians and the Czechs, and the Slovaks are coming much closer to the EU in terms of the perception of Russia.

It is terribly complicated now in Europe and in Russia. I mean, President Putin has gone into the eastern Ukraine, has annexed Crimea, we are coming up to the winter and Crimea has huge problems with the utility supplies. And this must be a huge headache for the Kremlin and how they are going to deal with Crimea and its inhabitants and their expectations.

But as for the Europeans, they have to ask themselves – are the sanctions working in the long term, coupled with what is happening to the oil prices which do seriously affect the Russian budget. And so, I can’t speak for Russia, of course, but the Europeans are asking themselves how much longer down the road can we go in imposing new sanctions, we have to know if they are going to have an effect.

There is just one thing I want to add which I found very interesting. At the G20 summit in Australia, it is quite extraordinary, you had the Canadians, of course the Americans, of course Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, you had the French, but also the Australians, the Japanese. And there was a serious criticism of President Vladimir Putin, which is one of the reasons, I think, why he left earlier. It wasn’t because he needed to sleep before he had to go to work on Monday. Everybody had to work on Monday again.

This is not a transatlantic dispute with Russia, it seems to me that it has broadened to a much wider sort of criticism of Russia’s policies. And don’t forget the MH17 downing of the airliner. I mean, the relations are just so complex now. Nobody is happy about this, but can’t allow it to continue either.

But if we talk about criticism, I suppose Mr. Obama has also been heavily criticized for his handling of the US international policy. So, do you think that both parties would do better working for some kind of a compromise?

Judy Dempsey: What do you think Angela Merkel has been trying to do?

Well, but she is the only one. But others, including the US, have been rather reluctant to seek compromise.

Judy Dempsey: She is the only important one, she is the one that completely understands the situation, she’s been delegated to deal with President Putin. I mean, she’s got the influence and the stature. So, please, don’t say that the Germans backed by the French and the British, and with the Obama’s backing, don’t say that the Europeans haven't tried the diplomatic track. They’ve been trying this diplomatic track since January.

But this has been coupled with rough wording from Mr. Obama and NATO Secretary General…

Judy Dempsey: Yes! But what did you expect when the Russians are going into the Baltic airspace all the time? What are we meant to do? I mean, there is the whole post-Cold War security architecture at stake here. You know, you can turn it around the other way – what is President Putin doing to ease the tensions?

Well, there we are again, pointing fingers. But is this really an efficient approach in crisis resolution?

Judy Dempsey: No, I'm not pointing fingers, I'm trying to explain the European position. It would be very nice to get a Russian interlocutor to say – hasn’t Angela Merkel done her best? She has spoken to Putin, as far as I can gather, 38 times.

This means he did precisely the same thing — he tried to explain his position 38 times to Angela Merkel.

Judy Dempsey: This is a very good point, but there is just the huge gap between the two positions. And the big task is: are we – the Russians, the Europeans, the Americans and anybody else, and the OSCE, of course, – going to find is there any kind of way of, first of all, stabilizing Ukraine, but in the long term, having a relationship with Russia is terribly crucial. I mean, Russia is our neighbor.

Jacques Sapir, the Director of studies at École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales in Paris: 

I think that so far the political position has been largely overtaken by the political emotions. And this is particularly true in France, much less, I think, in Germany or in Italy, but in France or Great Britain I think that the political emotions have overtaken a lot of rational decision making on Ukraine.

And Europe seems to be increasingly divided… 

Jacques Sapir: Well, actually, the EU has been divided on this topic since the very beginning. You have a group of countries like Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states which have been very vocal in supporting of the Ukrainian Government.

Then, you had and you still have some countries like Hungary or Romania, Bulgaria which are very-very cold on this topic and to some point displayed some understanding of the Russian position and of the Ukrainian insurgents.

And then you have what I would call the core of the EU – Germany, France, Italy and Spain – which have a very middle-ground position, which to some extent doesn’t want to break up with Russia, but on the other hand doesn’t want to break up with Poland, Sweden and the Baltic states. And the very problem now is how to manage the difference between the EU countries.

So, when we are getting to the sanctions issue, still they have somehow stopped short of introducing more sanctions.

Jacques Sapir: Actually, there is already a perception, which is now making some progress in the EU, that the sanctions are destructive not just for Russia, but also for the EU. But the problem here is that it is not destructive for the EU as a whole, but for some countries of the EU – Italy, Germany, France and much less for other countries like Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states.

So, in trying to achieve a common EU position the governments have to bargain quite heavily and to achieve a kind of trade-off in their interests which are not the same on this issue of the sanctions. That is the first point.

The second point which is also very important is the fact that it is not just the EU, which has implemented the sanctions against Russia, you also have the US. And to some extent the sanctions implemented by the US against Russia have been much broader, than the sanctions implemented by the EU.
And as we know, the US Government could now sue any foreign company which is using the US Dollar in its trade with the companies that are under the sanctions regime in Russia. This is to some extent making it mandatory for the EU to adapt its own sanctions regime to the American one. And to some extent we could see now that the US sanctions regime is leading the way for the EU sanctions regime.

Which is not exactly good for the EU?

Jacques Sapir: No, absolutely not! Because the US has a very small trade with Russia, when the trade between Russia and the EU is so much larger. And we could see in the last statement made by the German Government that it is already deeply concerned by the fact that the sanctions could hit very hard the German economy. The same thing is happening in Italy and to some extent also in France.

Nevertheless, we still have this problem that the EU could not break away from the US without, at the same time, competing with the decision made by the US Government against some European banks in this sanctions regime.

And it is very important to understand the fact that the US decision is on some European and some French banks which were involved in the deals with Iran and Cuba. And the US should withhold their decision, which has been done this spring, as a very powerful deterring effect onto the EU companies and onto the EU governments. This is the main problem, I think, right now of the sanctions regime.

OK, so, the sanctions are inefficient and as a solution they don’t suit all the members of the EU community…

Jacques Sapir: Well, I think that a lot of people inside the European governments – the French Government, the German Government, the Italian Government – a lot of people have understood that, first, the sanctions are not working – the sanctions are not inducing any change in the Russian politics about Ukraine.

The second point is that the cost of the sanctions in the European countries is now growing pretty fast. And it is becoming more and more felt in a lot of countries. And it is also extremely important to understand the other side of the coin.

But, first, you still have the problem of maintaining the kind of unity of the EU. And on this point the interests of different countries could be very different. Quite obviously Poland and Sweden haven't got the same interests as Germany, Italy and France, and even those countries haven't got the same interests as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

And the second point, of course, is the relation between the EU and the US. And until the EU wouldn’t accept the possibility of a breakup with the US, till this moment comes, the EU will be under the leadership of the US on this issue.

The main problem is that there is no rational approach to this issue. Of course, you have the people who are making rational statements and not just in the EU, but that has also been in the US. Henry Kissinger some days ago gave an interview to the German newspaper Der Spiegel. And he explained that anti-Putinism is not a policy, it is just something which is replacing the true policy towards Russia. So, you have the American people which are making rational statements, you have the German people making rational statements, the French people and so on.

But when it comes to the governments, the governments are now working partly under the weight of political emotions. And that is extremely important in Great Britain and to some extent in France. But they are also working under the threat of the US Government. And so far the European governments have some very important problems to solve to overcome this kind of threat. 

You also have another problem, which is the fact that right now the German economic policy is competed by a lot of other countries, mostly France, Italy and Spain, but also by the US. So, to some extent the French and the Italian Government are asking the US Government to put pressure onto the German Government, so that the German Government will soften its budget and economic policy.

But this is of course giving a very big lever to the US Government to push the sanctions onto the French and the Italian Government. And the things have become so much interrelated, that it is extremely difficult to find a position which could reunite the rational argument on the question of Ukraine and on the question of sanctions.

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