Dr Fadi Elhusseini, a political counsellor, commissioning editor at e-International Relations, and an Associate Research Fellow (ESRC) at the Institute for Middle East Studies (Canada), tackles this question.
The first question addressed in this programme is that of credibility — For how long can Daesh continue on an ideological basis when the majority of the Muslim world is against militant Islam? Dr Elhusseini said that Daesh has come about not just because of religious reasons, but also because of failed state scenarios, poverty, frustration, and of course as a result of some US and Western policies. “As long as those conditions are there, ISIS [Daesh in Arabic] will exist. Many people join ISIS out of absolute frustration, out of need for money, even out of needed to be treated for an illness.”
Daesh fighters receive roughly $625 according to recent research, which is at least twice the average wage in Syria, although the lack of reliable data means that all figures are approximations. But Daesh members receive a lot more than that just money. Terrorist organizations provides security, power, influence, and these are big incentives for people to join up, not just Daesh but other groups when they have all those privileges.
Regarding recruitment, Dr. Elhusseini said: “Some of the new recruits most probably think that they are smarter than ISIS [Daesh in Arabic], that they can do whatever they want, or they think that things aren’t that bad, that the media is exaggerating, but after some time when they see the brutalities and crimes committed, they figure out that they should leave. But of course it is too late to leave ISIS when you are there, because these people are monitored.” Internal problems such as this could lead to an implosion of ISIS, but due to the dire state of the economies of many Middle Eastern countries, this seems unlikely.
What will happen now that Daesh is losing ground? Dr. Elhusseini answer is that “Yes, ISIS [Daesh in Arabic] is losing ground, but you can’t say that it is losing the war. They have a lot of officers who are ex-military from either the Syrian army or from Saddam Hussein’s army. They have training, they have skills that will give them the possibility of surviving. Their next step will be to find a new safe haven. As everybody knows, ISIS is now trying to see what chances they have in Libya, but Libya will not be the only refuge for ISIS. Anywhere where government forces are thin on the ground could be considered by them.”
Strangely enough Daesh does not seem to be attacking or infiltrating into Russia, and this seems to be because of effective Russian government control over sensitive areas. Central Asia is another question. Dr. Elhusseini answers: “ISIS [Daesh in Arabic] has been trying to penetrate Central Asia, and trying to penetrate Afghanistan and Pakistan. However Al-Qaida and all of its affiliated groups are still strong in these regions, so ISIS has powerful competition there in terms of recruitment.”
Will we ever get rid of Daesh unless Russia, the US, and all other parties get together to tackle this hydra of a thousand heads? Dr. Elhusseini answer is that: “The only way that ISIS [Daesh in Arabic] is going to be defeated is to analyze and solve the reasons why it exists. In the same way the way to solve the migration crisis is not to build walls but to find out why people want to migrate in the first place."
