Macron rise, Fillon fall
Lately, Macron, already a media darling in France, has also become a clear favorite of bookmakers, though outside France, as betting in the country is not permitted.
"It is unusual to see much betting interest in a European election other than the UK, but this French election has bucked that trend," Graham Sharpe, media relations director at the UK's betting site William Hill, told Sputnik.
According to Sharpe, the most recent odds on French presidential elections are 5/4 for Macron's victory versus 9/4 for that of Le Pen, while the right-wing candidate Fillon's odds "had drifted badly when the allegations of financial impropriety regarding his wife broke."
In late January and early February, French satirical newspaper Le Canard Echaine published a series of articles claiming that The Republican's candidate Fillon's wife Penelope had received generous payments for her job as his parliamentary assistant without ever exercising real functions. French media also questioned employment of two out of five Fillon's offsprings as his parliamentary assistants between 2005 and 2007.
Though the rightist candidate denied the accusation and apologized to the French public for the "error" he made by employing his wife, apology fell on deaf ears: Tuesday's poll by Harris Interactive revealed that 65 percent of the French citizens wanted him to withdraw from presidential race. Although some politicians stood by Fillon, others, including his party fellows, openly called on him to quit, even suggesting that the party should now turn to Alain Juppe, the current mayor of Bordeaux, who was beaten by Fillon at November center-right primaries.
Left divisions
While the Right camp is evidently divided over Fillon's case, the Left camp is no less divided over the issue of whether the Socialist Party (PS) should extend its support to Macron amid unpopularity of the party's own candidate Benoit Hamon.
Many Socialists have already extended their support and allegedly sponsorship to Macron, who gently cherishes his "nor left, nor right" positioning. This week, first secretary of PS Jean-Christophe Cambadelis even suggested expelling Socialist members who supported and financed Macron's campaign as "one cannot be at the same time in the team of the Socialist Party and sponsor the opposing team".
This suggestion was immediately rebuffed by some Socialist heavyweights. The president of the PS Group in Senate Didier Guillaume proposed to wait and see whether polls would still be favorable to the former economy minister before ruling out any cooperation and PS' loyalty to him, while the Socialist Mayor Gerard Collomb assured journalists that "Macron is the only way for the Left to win."
Challenges ahead
Speaking last weekend in Lyon, former investment banker Macron reiterated his stance on "reconciling the two Frances that have been growing apart for too long," stating that his movement En Marche!, now filling its candidates for the parliamentary elections in June, was open to representatives of all political spectrum as far as they adhere to his principles. But predominance of Socialist defectors has already started to worry Macron's team. Last week, Christophe Castaner, a Socialist Party member who has joined Macron’s campaign, told Le Monde that "if 200 socialist officials join us from one day to the next, we risk resembling a PS copy party and scaring away voters."
Macron's opponents on the right have already started to question his independent positioning.
Gilbert Collard, the National Front lawmaker told Sputnik, that French ruling system would compel the independent candidate to serve its economic interests despite his non-affiliation with any party.
"I believe that the [ruling] system will do everything to have a candidate able to defend their economic, financial and banking interests," the FN lawmaker stressed.
Many of ex-economy minister's opponents also pinpoint that much is still unclear about his policies. According to Jean-Frederic Poisson, a former rightist candidate, who lost the primaries in November and later extended his support to Fillon, much "ambiguity" was surrounding the presidential hopeful. Despite being a promising candidate, who could stand for the renewal of the French ruling system, Macron has not yet provided a detailed program, Poisson told Sputnik.
"Donald Trump managed to win US elections without having clear political intentions, his campaign was a kind of live TV show. Emmanuel Macron is not that kind of guy, he can't win by the ability to manipulate the political agenda," Moreau-Chevrolet said, also stressing that En Marche! founder does not have clear ideological position and has never been elected, even on the local level.
The MCBG Conseil's president believes that Macron's rise in polls is temporary and is largely linked to Fillon's image problems and flabby presidential campaign on the left, that started just in the end of January.
"He [Macron] is surging because of political vacuum that we have in France for the moment. It is only temporarily, and we have three month ahead. We expect levels of his support to be eroded week after week," Moreau-Chevrolet said, adding that Fillon would probably soon get out of the scandal and get back to the race.
Emmanuel Macron's only experience in the government — that of economic counselor and later the economy minister under the current Socialist President Francois Hollande — may also prove problematic. Even Socialists candidates had difficulties during January primaries with defending the legacy and results of five years of the rule by Hollande, who is France's least popular head of state in decades and the first one not to seek reelection.
So any affiliation with the president will not profit Macron, while the far-right will surely remind the French voters that Macron was a minister of the failed government, the expert said.
"The most powerful candidate is Marine Le Pen at this stage. She could even win in the second round of the presidential elections," Moreau-Chevrolet stressed.
Ironically, the biggest bet the UK's betting site William Hill ever had on the election is 10,000 British pounds (over $12,500) on Marine Le Pen. As company's media relations director said, it was placed by a UK citizen and stands to make a profit of 22,000 pounds.
