04:20 GMT +326 February 2017
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    Former U.S. President Bill Clinton (L) applauds his wife, Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (R), as they appear with their daughter Chelsea (C) at Mrs. Clinton's caucus night rally in Des Moines, Iowa February 1, 2016

    Why Hillary Likely to Become Next US President No Matter What

    © REUTERS/ Brian Snyder
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    At the current stage of the US presidential campaign a cautious prognosis could be made that Hillary Clinton would win the race. There are several reasons for such an assumption, including the dynasty tradition inherent in the US political system as well as the specifics of the American electoral process.

    Here is a quick look on how political dynasties form in the US.

    Like Father Like Son

    American political dynasties emerged shortly after the United States appeared on the world political map.

    John Adams Jr. served as US president in 1797-1801. His son John Quincy Adams served as the 6th President of the US in 1825-1829. Retired general William Harrison died a month after becoming president, on April 4, 1811. His grandson Benjamin Harrison became president in 1889.

    Zachary Taylor who was elected president in 1849 was great nephew of James Madison, the 4th President of the US (1809-1817).  Franklin Roosevelt was distantly related to Theodore Roosevelt (president in 1901-1909).

    Barbara Pierce Bush, the wife of the 41st President of the US, George H.W. Bush, descended from the family of Franklin Pierce, the 14th President of the US. She could have become the mother of two US presidents, but her younger son Jeb Bush withdrew from the ongoing presidential race.

    Against the Will of Majority

    One of the most distinctive features of the US political system is the fact that in the US a candidate can win the presidential election even if he gains fewer votes than his rival.

    The most notable case of this occurring is when George W. Bush won the electoral college to be reelected as president in 2004, even though John Kerry won the popular vote.

    The issue is that citizens of the US do not directly elect the president. Instead, these voters directly elect designated mediators called "electoral voters." The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) for the office of president is elected to office.

    The Electoral College allows under-populated states to have an equal command with heavily populated states. For instance, Wyoming has a population of nearly 600,000, and three voters while Texas with a population of 27.5 million has only 38 voters.

    Another problem is that except for Maine and Nebraska, electoral voters are distributed on a "winner take all" basis. That is, all electoral voters are pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in the state.

    Maine and Nebraska delegate their electoral votes based on a "congressional district method," selecting one electoral voter for each congressional district won by popular vote and selecting the remaining two electoral voters by a statewide popular vote.

    Why Donald Trump Has Little Chance for Presidency

    As a whole, the current electoral system is comfortable for the American political elite because it keeps undesirable candidates and politicians away from assuming power. Even if such a candidate runs from one of the leading parties (like flamboyant billionaire Donald Trump in the ongoing race) the system still cannot guarantee success for them.

    According to a survey commissioned by the Gallup Institute, 59-62 percent of US citizens would prefer to elect the president directly. However, this initiative was blocked by Senate back in 1970.

    Nevertheless, the struggle goes on. Ten years ago, several US states debated the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an agreement designed to ensure that the candidate who wins the most popular votes nationwide is elected president. It has not yet come into effect.

    As of 2016, it has been joined by 10 states and the District of Columbia, with their 165 combined electoral votes while 270 votes are needed for the compact to have legal force. However, chances are slim for the agreement to come into force.

    Members of the Bush and Clinton families have been president of the United States for a total of 20 years, from 1989 to 2009. Then, ex-first lady Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State during Barack Obama’s term. History of the US political process hint that Hillary Clinton has strong chances to become the 45th President of the United States.

    Related:

    Unwelcome Winner: Bush Ex-Presidents Will Not Endorse Donald Trump
    Kasich Dropping Out of Presidential Race, Leaving Trump Only GOP Candidate
    Trump Begins One-on-One Faceoff With Clinton 13 Points Behind - Poll
    Clinton Leads Sanders by 27% Margin in Indiana Primary
    Tags:
    presidential campaign, elections, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, United States
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    • Jet fuel can't melt steel beams
      The us and their joke of democracy.. just like the eu.
    • avatar
      jas
      Did history also hint that Jeb Bush had a strong chance? Where is he? He didn't even make the final round.
    • Mikhas
      Yeah, that awkward moment of truth when you have to talk to someone you called "Hitler" and the worst puerile things you could come up with...

      Hitlery´s foreign policy is going to be one of perpetual arrogant confrontation until she get stuck with no other options but all out war.
    • avatar
      Mayoh
      You can't give a pencil and paper to a communist because they will still fanatically write out of touch of reality not matter how bad reality is beating them. This article make to remember me the last days of Ceausescu in Romania.
    • avatar
      copius
      Calling Putin Hitler was a big mistake.
      Will the US president lick Putin's boots and apologize to save USA from a nuclear holocaust?
      If Hiliary becomes president, she will have to do that.
      Don't ever forget, in a nuclear war, the outright winner is the one with a larger land mass.
      USA has no where to run.
    • avatar
      guillaume.t
      May God spare us all if the article's forecast is correct. I believe it won't happen, while being a Clinton, Hillary has been very visible at higher levels of politics for many years with mediocre results. These still fresh in people's minds. It's going to be hard for the average american to accept Hillary as President versus say a JFK junior if he were here today.
    • Nicholas
      who typed this nonsense? Is this a copy and paste from Reuters?
    • avatar
      Randall Lee Hilburn
      The United States is not actually governed by the surface government, but instead by a hidden state. They chose whomsoever thy will to hold office. The elections are just for show in order to make the people think that they actually have a voice in the government.
    • avatar
      cmat.wolfgang
      IMO, she bought all the blacks, and they will just put her up.
      In the USA its all just a matter of money.
      It makes me sick.
    • siberianhuskyin reply toMikhas(Show commentHide comment)
      Mikhas,
      Love the name you gave to that b**ch
      Hitlery. how appropriate for her.
      I used to call hilarious Hillary but will now adopt your Hitlery
    • avatar
      Izzy
      Elections in the US are just for the show - it's the biggest political fraud in the world!
    • Marc Nonnenkamp
      Very sad but perhaps true. The American system has become so corrupt that it is no longer a real democracy or a bona-fide "free" country.
    • avatar
      michael
      you know what's really scary about hillary - if she was your mother-in-law! :)
    • Porkbelly Porkerpig
      Hillary Clinton can be the President from her prison cell.
    • avatar
      rishardhawk
      The Murdeous Beach should be hanged all together with the Western Elite and their Military Leaders.
    • avatar
      Zhukov
      The world will not survive the war that will come if she is president.
    • avatar
      Zhukovin reply toMayoh(Show commentHide comment)
      Mayoh, But only Hitlery can start a land war in Europe. Hosting US ships and soldiers is a mistake.
    • avatar
      seanrkearney
      God help us all if Clinton is the next President. She may well be the last one too in my opinion if her administrations policies reflect her current antagonistic attitudes to other superpowers such as China and Russia. Trump is in my view a much wiser choice.
    • avatar
      seanrkearneyin reply tojas(Show commentHide comment)
      Yes and Clinton appears desperate too. She is even trying to court Republican voters. Can't imagine that will go down well with the traditional Democratic voters.They might either not vote or switch to Trump.
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