16:20 GMT +320 February 2017
    Polish soldiers watch as US troops from the 5th Battalion of the 7th Air Defense Regiment emplace a launching station of the Patriot air and missile defence system at a test range in Sochaczew, Poland

    Fanning the Flames: US Think Tank Presents 'Russian Invasion' Scenario

    Get short URL

    According to RAND Corporation's estimates, Russian military forces can overrun NATO's Baltic footholds in 60 hours; in order to rule out the possibility of such an imaginary scenario the report offers to increase NATO's spending by another $2.7 billion.

    American war planners continue to get themselves worked up with Russia's imaginary "threat," using the phantom menace to convince Washington and NATO to increase their already bloated defense budget.

    A Cold War-style RAND Corporation report suggests that Russian military forces could reach the outskirts of the Baltic capital cities of Tallinn and Riga in 60 hours.

    "Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of Tallinn and Riga is 60 hours," the study says.

    "Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad," it stresses.

    "RAND came to its 'unambiguous' conclusion after a series of wargames it conducted between the middle of 2014 and early 2015," Dave Majumdar, the Defense Editor of The National Interest, explains in one of his latest articles.

    However, RAND made a few recommendations on how to handle the "threat."

    The study suggests that "a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades — adequately supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers on the ground" — is likely to prevent the rapid overrun of the Baltic states.

    "In all, the report puts the figure for fielding seven brigades to deter potential Russian aggression at about $2.7 billion," Majumdar points out.

    The study's authors, however, wasted no time in justifying the spending:

    "That is not a small number, but seen in the context of an Alliance with an aggregate gross domestic product of more than $35 trillion and combined yearly defense spending of more than $1 trillion, it is hard to say that it is a fortiori unaffordable, especially in comparison to the potential costs of failing to defend NATO's most exposed and vulnerable allies — of potentially inviting a devastating war, rather than deterring it," the report says.

    However ludicrous the scenario may be, the study reflects NATO's trend toward amassing military forces in Central and Eastern Europe, in close proximity to Russia's borders, under the false pretext of Moscow's "threat."

    US soldier, center, instructs Ukrainian soldiers during joint training exercises on the military base in the Lviv region, western Ukraine
    © AP Photo/ Andrew Kravchenko, Pool
    US soldier, center, instructs Ukrainian soldiers during joint training exercises on the military base in the Lviv region, western Ukraine

    Earlier this week US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter announced that the Pentagon is planning to increase its spending in Europe from $789 million to $3.4 billion in order to counter "Russian aggression."

    The move was qualified by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as an attempt to "create grounds to implement military plans against Russia and take practical steps to push military infrastructure closer to Russia's borders."

    Nearly simultaneously the BBC program released a hypothetical WWIII scenario, where Russia "invades" Latvia. Russian Ambassador to Latvia Alexander Veshnyakov called the show a "dangerous provocation" aimed at demonizing Russia and justifying the needs of the military lobby to increase the spending of NATO in Europe."


    Turkey's Invasion of Syria? Moscow Keeping an Eye on Ankara's Moves
    NATO Allegedly Plans to Approve Military Expansion in Eastern Europe
    Moscow Dismisses NATO Claims of Russian 'Agressive' Policies as Propaganda
    BBC Two Show About Hypothetical WWIII ‘Dangerous Provocation’
    Russian invasion, Russian threat, NATO buildup, military budget, war games, NATO, RAND Corporation, Russian Foreign Ministry, Pentagon, Maria Zakharova, Ashton Carter, Baltic Region, United States, Russia, Latvia
    Community standardsDiscussion
    Comment via FacebookComment via Sputnik
    • Сomment

    All comments

    • avatar
      These think tanks are there just to boost the military/industrial complex profits .All the USA exports is war they have nothing else as the county collapses.
    • avatar
      I do not think any responsible politician of NATO Country in Western Europe would start a WW3 for any or all of the Baltic States. This is just thrown out Money. The Baltic countries, Poland, Ukraine, Moldavia etc. bordering Russia should not be NATO members and it would be better for them to stay neutral (as Switzerland). That would also help raising the living standards in those countries which basically cannot be defended militarily when it comes to a war between NATO and Russia.
    • avatar
      Leaving 2.7bn bill at their hand for an imaginary threat is much better than taking over Baltic. Hopefully they continue with these delusions until they get bankrupt, even more than now!!
    • Jet fuel can't melt steel beams
      Who cares about the Blatic countries apart the us/nato..
    • Instead these RAND idiots should make assessments of Daesh coming towards EU and the rest of the stupid NATO vassals countries..!
    • US "crap tanks" does what it was made for. Someone must do the job, commenterettes.

      What are interesting are results of their war games. 60 hrs! Good Lord! On bicycles perhaps, using what Russia has at hand_and_ close to the stinky-pinky EU villages called "states", it'd take 24 hrs, no more. Such thoughts were so terrifying RAND's male witches shit pants and they were forced to conjure up other scenarios to be believed, hence the report.

      On the other hand few are correct, it's not a "think tank" but "money squeezer" to its cronies.
    • avatar
      They are just afraid that the sheep-like people of Europe may run to Putin for protection, so they maintain them in a state of increasing terror of the big bad bear instead.
      Why Europe feel so incapable of pulling itself from under the iron heel of US remains a deep mystery?
    • A = π r 2in reply tormukarutabana(Show commentHide comment)
      rmukarutabana, might have something to do with the US dollar being the global reserve currency
    • A = π r 2in reply toJet fuel can't melt steel beams(Show commentHide comment)
      Jet fuel can't melt steel beams, let us not forget Kaliningrad brother
    • avatar
      That is dead easy, all Russian army needs to do is to use loudspeakers and shouts BOOOOOO!! and all NATO fabulous forces will be screaming on the run.

      That sounds very childish but in reality it is not. Bear in mind that US military experts know very well that they are not match for Russians and there are too many evidences to confirm that.

      USA is nothing else than ordinary low intelligence bully and they usually draw power needed for intimidation in the vassals that are around them. They are surrounded with small dogs who bite from behind and they are drawing courage from presence of big bully. However as soon as they are not together none of them has no courage for anything at all. On their own they lack confidence and are ready for flight at first notice. That includes big bully as well.

      Making such imaginative scenarios are made on the military industrial complex as they want sell more weapons and get more profits. Just watch what kind of shit weapons NATO allays needs to buy from USA just to keep fictitious super weapons such as flying bucket F-35 just to make profits to USA corporations and they are not allowed neither questioning nor examining truthfulness of suppliers data. Imagine a long faces of British, Italian, Canadian, Australian and so on pilots when they will fly F-35 and discover that it is just slightly more manoeuvrable than catapulted rock and the price tag is beyond any level of normality.

      On other side imagine Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 as well as MiG-29 on other side as opponents. That is something like martial arts master encounters some street trouble maker. Result is already known to both sides.
    • siberianhusky
      More money for Soros and the American MIC. In the mean are the water pipes in Flint being fixed or is there no money for that anymore?
    • FlorianGeyer
      The 'think tank' should really be called the ' fantasy tank'.

      In the real world why would the Russian federation wish to occupy nations where the population is hostile? For this would only invite the nightmare of Russian troops being attacked in an endless guerilla war with Poles,Latvians, Estonians etc. There is NO point.

      Russia did agree to the population of the Crimea rejoining the Russian family after a referendum . This will not invite much hostility as the vast majority of Crimean people are Ethnic Russian's.

      The USA might like to ensnare itself in endless and pointless wars such as Afghanistan ,but the Russian Federation does not.

      Someone should tell the scribbler who wrote the article that the Soviet Union collapsed over 20 years ago.
      Russia has moved on, the USA is still stuck in the playpen of ignorance.
    • FlorianGeyer

      I agree. Soon there will be NATO re-enactment groups at multi period historic shows,lol.
    • avatar
      Europe will fight Russia so that the US can basically wait out another world war across the oceans as in the previous two. Will the Europeans agree to this again? How can you get duped three times?
    • avatar
      Jackov Smirnoff
      NATO countries are struggling to care for Syrian refugees. How will their weak economies support a massive buildup of weapons that will probably never be used, and and the lifetime costs of military manpower?
    • Dirk Ramsey
      None of these "stink tanks"has ever explained why Russia would want to invade the Baltic's in the first place. This is just a way to waste more tax payer money that could be used elsewhere.
    • avatar
      The fact the matter is that USA military is good to fight weaker, much weaker opponents only on distance by applying areal bombing and sending troops forward when terrain is soft and upturned by explosions of their bombs and missiles. There is prerogative that USA opponent has no abilities to defend itself and in any way returns fire on the world's most powerful and glorious nation.

      So far this prerogative has been fulfilled in every single military - terrorist aggression they performed. However they carefully avoided confrontation with nations which would bite them back. They still did not forget beatings they got in Vietnam against jungle warriors with bamboo sticks and traps that killed tens of thousands of yanks.

      Now imagine this courageous, sophisticated, well trained, highly motivated and above all superbly equipped army facing opponent? He, what the hell, you were thinking that I referred to US junk army? Nope, I described Russian army which is by no means the most competent army on this planet. Imagine these USA pussies waiting for their jets to return back from bombing Russian position so that they can go forward? Imagine them waiting hours and hours but no plane returns, no radio or radar com is working and they do not know what to do, lost in space and time until Cabooooo and all is gone, all stopped to exist, they stop to exist as just at that moment Russian FOAB burst above their heads sending them straight to prime elementary form of particles.

      I just cannot understand how it is possible that people are so easily brainwashed and deliberately push out of their conciousness every memory, every bit of information on the past and current American military achievements and realise that it would be more dangerous fight against old Don Quixote of La Mancha than US army. Despite all available information, all available data and statistics, they still hold hope that USA is the one which would take them to the glory.

      I sincerely hope that it wont come to that as then there will be too many destruction and deaths just because plain idiots believed that USA are indispensable. In reality they are but only in USA as without them there would be no USA, but that applies for every single small and big country on the planet. Land without people - inhabitants is no man's land and has no name.
    Show new comments (0)