Rising Storm: Coup, War, Chaos Signal Risk of Instability in Saudi Arabia

A black hole that has opened up in the region after the US fiasco in Iraq and overthrow of Saddam Hussain is apparently beginning to drag down Saudi Arabia.

In the last few months the debates about the future of the Saudi regime have been gaining momentum. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter and one of the leading consumers of high-tech weapons of the US. If the Saudi regime falls, the oil markets will turn over upside down, and Saudi weapons will disperse throughout the world, Ergin Yıldızoğlu wrote.

The Mecca stampede that killed at least 2,177 pilgrims during the annual period of Hajj last month has seriously cast doubts over the ability of the Saudi regime to carry out its functions of providing safety to Muslims while performing the pilgrimage.

The rise of the terrifying ISIL which is based on the Wahhabi school of thought and Salafi Islamist terrorism has resulted in the Saudi regime being firmly linked with international terrorism.

The falling popularity of the Saudi regime is also linked to the war in Yemen. It was started without any consideration of the consequences mainly due to Saudi Arabia’s 'Iran-phobia'. This war as experts have noted, has not given any results and continues to have a heavy impact on the Saudi treasury. It has also called into question the decision-making abilities of the regime, Yıldızoğlu wrote for Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet.

If that was not enough, the House of Saud is also facing a losing battle in its oil business. It is trying too hard to maintain a high price on the oil in order to sideline the American oil producers from the market. The price of a barrel of oil is $90 whereas; the actual price is almost two times lower than that. The treasury revenues, which are 80-90% dependent on oil exports, are gradually declining, Yıldızoğlu noted.

According to secret documents (leaked to the press last week) that indicate economic and public expenditures being reduced by King Salman, one might think that the effects of the economic pressure are beginning to show in the country.

But the biggest threat of all may well be the instability within the royal family itself. According to the documents that were published a few weeks ago by The Guardian, a prince of the royal family (whose name was undisclosed), wrote a letter of appeal to the palace to conduct a coup against the king and his son Salman.

Allegedly, the letter received broad support among other members of the family and nation.

The rising tension with Iran and ISIL’s threats that have directly started to take aim at the Saudi regime all add up to the Saudis being in an extremely dangerous geopolitical situation.

Just until recently the House of Saud in the face of all these geopolitical risks relied on the protection of the US administration. However, today, the United States and Iran are improving their ties and that is yet another heavy blow to the shaken Saudi regime.