The latest polling from the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft — one of the wealthiest people in the UK — shows that Labour would be effectively expunged from the Scottish map with even the slightest swing of 21% to the Scottish National Party (SNP).
In the Labour-held seats in Scotland, only 60% of those who voted Labour in 2010 said they would do so again this year; more than one third (35%) said they would support the SNP.
Labour faces wipeout in Scotland. My take on new @LordAshcroft poll (w/ interactive breakdown) http://t.co/HkIrrABAKl pic.twitter.com/jodrzKFsBG
— Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) February 4, 2015
Labour has traditionally enjoyed more support in Scotland than the Conservatives, but the rise in popularity of the SNP has become a major political threat, not just north of the border. Losing nearly all its Scottish seats will severely affect its chances in Westminster.
For every seat lost in Scotland, Labour would have to win a seat back from the Tories in England, where the outcome of the general election is likely to be tight. Political commentators are looking towards a hung parliament in May 2015, with the minor parties — including the SNP, anti-Europe UKIP, the Green party and the Liberal Democrats — holding the balance of power.
More Misery for Miliband
The poll, released on February 4, also highlights dissatisfaction with the Labour leader Ed Miliband. In the Labour-held seats only just under four in ten (38%) said they were dissatisfied with David Cameron and would rather have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, 44% said either that they were satisfied with Cameron (18%) or that they were dissatisfied but preferred him to Miliband (26%).
Labour has seen a huge fall in its support in Scotland, largely driven by the rise of the SNP and backing for Scottish Independence. Although the vote was tight — 55.3% voting against independence and 44.7% voting in favour — the huge turnout (85%) showed a massive desire to engage in political debate.
The more seats the SNP get from Labour = Tories will get into govt through the back door #VoteSNPgetTories pic.twitter.com/RyGK9DsaDZ
— Scottish Labour (@scottishlabour) February 4, 2015
It was also the first vote in Scotland where the normal voting age was reduced from 18 to 16, driven by the SNP's policy to lower the voting age for all elections in Scotland.
Worse still, the Labour party in Scotland lost its former leader, Johann Lamont, who resigned in October 2014, accusing her Westminster colleagues of being "dinosaurs" who treated the Scottish Labour party "like a branch office of London".
Of course there could be a Tory/SNP coalition #thinkitthrough
— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 4, 2015
Ed Miliband's woes were worsened when the Scottish Labour Party voted in Jim Murphy — a former Secretary of State for Scotland — as its new leader. Murphy backed Ed Miliband's brother, David, in the battle to win the leadership of the national party. Murphy was his campaign manager. David Miliband lost out to his brother. Ed Miliband has thus been left in quite the predicament in Scotland, as he is keen to campaign for Labour, but wary of being seen running the campaign from London.
