Commenting on the recent development in Iraq in the RIA Novosti interview, the former chief of the Main Department for International Military Cooperation of the Russia Defence Ministry, voiced the opinion that "the United States either cannot, or will not see the true motives". "Iraqis (or most of them) cannot but feel the lost state sovereignty", believes Ivashov.
Practice shows that in such situations troops stationed in a country are seen by "the most of its population as the occupation force and the proposed state-administration version as a puppet regime".
In the opinion of Ivashov, in case "agreement has been reached between the sunnis and the shiites, which constitute over 60 percent in Iraq, armed uprisings in that country will grow into a large-scale war". "Time has shown that Iraqis have enough weapons. It cannot be neglected that the rest of the Islamic world will certainly take the side of the insurgent Iraq and not the United States and its coalition partners", the expert emphasised.
If things take this course, "the coalition forces will, purely militarily, be more vulnerable than insurgents". "The forces of the United States and its coalition allies are dispersed across the entire territory, are deprived of the opportunity to be mobile and be the first to deal strikes. Therefore, they will inevitably be the targets of local unending attacks by well-organised Iraqi forces", Ivashov believes.
"The United States will objectively be faced with the dilemma - either leave Iraq or build up its military presence in the region", he stressed.
It is most probable that the United States will "prefer the second option, which will unavoidably lead to greater differences inside the coalition, build-up of anti-American sentiments, understanding the United States' use-of-force policy in Iraq as having no prospects".