The United States Army concluded in early February that between 80,000 and 150,000 Americans could perish from COVID-19-related complications in a worst case scenario, the Daily Beast has reported, citing a screenshot from the document.
The document, prepared by US Army-North, the formation of the US Army responsible for homeland defence, was created on February 3, with the mortality figures projected as a ‘black swan’ scenario.
The report noted that based on the ease of the virus’s transmission, combined with its asymptomatic properties among some carriers, up to 80 million Americans could expect to be infected, with 15-25 million people requiring care, and 300,000-500,000 needing hospitalization.
Here it is. The warning — one of many — is in black and white. https://t.co/cMXHICcoXu pic.twitter.com/wL4PEGwp8u
— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) April 2, 2020
The document was prepared for the head of US Northern Command, Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy and chief of Army North Lt. Gen. Laura Richardson, with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and Chief of Staff James McConville also said to have seen the projections.
Worst Case May Be Worse
This week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, a leading US infectious diseases expert and member of President Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force, calculated that the US could suffer between 100,000 to 240,000 fatalities, even if the country follows existing health guidelines. That's nearly 40 percent higher than the Pentagon estimate. Fauci has also warned that COVID-19 could become a regular, seasonally occurring virus. President Trump has promised to do everything possible to ensure that the death toll remains below 200,000.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the United States now accounts for over 22 percent of the world’s reported new coronavirus cases, with 216,700 Americans infected and over 5,100 succumbing to virus-related complications. As in most other countries, the elderly and people with preexisting conditions face the highest risk.
Military Lacks Resources
COVID-19 has hit the US military hard, forcing it to cancel training exercises abroad, and to enact quarantine measures. Last week, the Pentagon ordered commanders at bases around the world to stop reporting new cases among personnel, with 1,000+ US troops and associated personnel believed to be affected as of Monday.
On Wednesday, Acting US Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said the commander of the COVID-19-struck USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier may be reprimanded over a letter published in the media demanding urgent Pentagon support in quarantining his ship’s crew and getting sailors off the carrier.
Last month, a Pentagon spokesperson lamented that although the military was “ready, willing and able to support civilian authorities” in any way it could, its resources were limited, with the $686 billion budget enough for only 36 hospitals, with military medical resources in general largely geared toward treating combat casualties, not infectious diseases.
