16:00 GMT +326 March 2017
    China H-20 Hypersonic Stealth Fighter Bomber Concept

    Chinese Army Commander: War With US Increasing Reality

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    Amid heightening tensions surrounding US President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance, the possibility of a trade war and even physical combat between the world’s two largest economies has become a full-fledged "reality."

    On the day that Donald Trump was sworn-in as the 45th President of the United States, Liu Guoshon, a Chinese Central Military Commission official, authored an op-ed pointing out that violence between China and America might not be so far into the future. "A war within the president’s term," and "war breaking out tonight," are not merely slogans, "but the reality," Liu said.

    Ian Bremmer, a Stanford-trained political scientist and inventor of the global political risk index, commented that, "Chinese officials are preparing for the worst, and they expect to retaliate decisively in response to any US policies they perceive as against their interests." Bremmer added that Beijing's moves to increase DF-21 missile tests and initiate casual aircraft carrier missions near Taiwan is asserting itself as a warning to Trump, rather than as a show of force.

    The South and East China Seas, and their accompanying territorial disputes, are just two areas where violence could erupt. A more macabre prospect would involve North Korea and a doomsday-scenario deployment of nuclear-equipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. Last week, a senior North Korean military official who defected asserted that if the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) head Kim Jong-Un sensed his dynasty was under threat, the dictator would “press the button” to launch a nuke aimed at, for instance, Los Angeles, California, the second-most populous metropolitan area in the US. A former deputy ambassador from Pyongyang to London, the defector asserted that mutually-assured destruction would not deter Kim.

    Beijing has spent considerable time and financial resources toward increased militarization, following Trump’s election. The People’s Liberation Army is developing a stealthy, next-generation aircraft, the H-20. While officials say the aircraft has a long way to go, the cruise missiles and nuclear weapons for the aircraft "are all in place," Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo said.

    On Trump’s first day as US president, the White House said that a “state-of-the-art” missile defense system would be a top priority for the administration, specifically, "Despite more than a decade of development and a bill of $40 billion," the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system “is simply unable to protect the US public,” a 2016 report from the Union of Concerned Scientists said.

    In regards to a trade war between Beijing and Washington, the main risks may not only be economic. Economist Noah Smith writes that, without Trump’s protectionist policies, world trade, as a percentage of global GDP, peaked around 2004. Orthodox economic theory generally frowns upon protectionist policies for passing the costs onto consumers and thereby hurting trade. The equivocation, according to Smith, is that for the US and China large bilateral trade volumes are necessarily linked to mutual prosperity. Instead, lower trade does not reveal the full impact, Smith said. "It might be that large trade volumes make a country only a little better off in terms of real income, so that even a large reduction in trade flows hurts the economy only a little bit."


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    PLA, Ian Bremmer, Washington, Beijing
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    • avatar
      Walter Wolf
      Trump is not to wage wars but provocation by neocon-liberals is very likely during his term.
    • siberianhuskyin reply toWalter Wolf(Show commentHide comment)
      Walter Wolf,
      Especially as long as that old Frankenstein freak McCain is around.
    • avatar
      In order to succeed a war with China, the USA needs to make peace with Russia and have a mini nuke war with North Korea. China will react to this attack and then WWIII may commence. The USA needs to neutralize the Russian to have a chance of defeating the Chinese. Once this happen, (if the USA got away with it), the USA will turn against the Russian. India will align with the USA.
    • arpito
      "Mutually assured destruction would not deter Kim" - what patent nonsense is that? There is the destruction of one city at most in the USA versus the destruction of all in NK. There is nothing mutual about it, and of course it would deter Kim to have himself, his family and his nation wiped out and then conquered. He would not actually pull the switch until he is invaded. It seem that the USA warmongers are ready to sacrifice a city or two for the sake of the survival of their ideology and dirty interests. Just like in 9-11. Unfortunately such action will very likely start WWIII. The nuclear genocide of the American people will be a fitting end to the nuclear genocide they perpetrated on the Japanese civilians at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since Russia and China combined far outweighs the USA in territory and population, if there are survivors to conquer the world, they will not be the Americans.
    • arpitoin reply tolandauroj(Show commentHide comment)
      landauroj, sorry, your calculations are idiotic.The Russians and Chinese know very well that their survival depends on their strategic alliance. So there is no chance whatsoever of playing them against each other, especially not by a crude first strike against NKR. While the neocons are itching to make an example of Kim by egging him into a nuclear launch, and subsequently destroying them with a possibly conventional attack, this would result in WWIII being on hair trigger notice. And if they actually use nuclear counterattack, then that is actually WWII right there. Sadly this is what is shaping up. But your scenario is for children and right out of Red Alert3
    • avatar
      why are writing about what a hot-dog who has no say?
    • avatar
      The US won't do it; they'll lose badly.
    • avatar
      landaurojin reply toarpito(Show commentHide comment)
      arpito, There are several hypotheses about possibilities. They could be out of mind but they are not children thoughts. Presently the USA is using supercomputers to find out the results of a first nuke strike simulation in Russia, so the possibility it is there. Remember, Germany signed a treaty of no aggression with Russia in WWII, to revoke it later on. War history is full of these situations. I am not declaring that Russia will do what I said, but for the USA it may happen.
    • avatar
      francescoslosselin reply tololhaha(Show commentHide comment)
      never Us has bomb a country with high quality defence...
    • avatar
      Randall Lee Hilburn
      The actions of the Trump administration are becoming increasingly erratic and unpredictable. Like nobody knows what in the hell they are doing. That may be what is making the war increasingly likely. More a matter of shear incompetence rather than being the result of a deliberate policy. The USA and the USSR avoided WW3 because they knew precisely what to expect from each other. But when one becomes unpredictable things become guesswork.
    • avatar
      banging the drum is such a futile pursuit, regardless of which side does it.
    • avatar
      I think China actually going to war with anyone will be their own undoing. They don't do well with protestors, and since the elite won't send their children to fight a war, their will be a lot of protesting. Which raises an interesting question, how does a communist country have a ruling elite?
    • avatar
      trust me china doesn't want any of the usa
    • avatar
      Erik Tretein reply tolandauroj(Show commentHide comment)
      landauroj, Your logic is very flawed. Russia's Command & Control is sufficiently distributed across such a large land mass, that even the most carefully executed simultaneous strike could not take out everything, not enough to prevent a counter strike of at least dozens, if not hundreds of warheads.

      What all these "scenarios" always fail to account for, is the attackers "own goals" in this case, the US has nearly 100 operating nuclear power stations, all of which have millions of kgs of spent fuel sitting hot, in storage pools. These power stations are mostly located near population centers, that is the targets. Even 25 massive meltdowns of that scale would completely contaminate all of the world. And yes, that would be happening in Russia and all of Europe as well. There is no way to win a nuclear war as we have inadvertent built our very own doomsday machine as in the film Dr. Strangelove. Game over for everyone.
    • avatar
      Erik Tretein reply tohuman_016(Show commentHide comment)
      human_016, Do not underestimate a countries patriotism when it is attacked. If the US attacks China, the people will rally around their country and government.

      btw, who do you think are China's military officers, Navy commanders, pilots? One hint, they are not farmers.
    • horseguardsin reply tolandauroj(Show commentHide comment)
      landauroj, while the US could lauch a first strike, the missiles will be detected by Russia before they hit; this gives Russia sufficient time to respond appropriately. And more than likely, given the Russian emphasis on defence, any incoming missiles will be hit before they reach target.
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