Nordics Bracing for New Arms Race Despite Russia's Proposed Military Budget Cuts

The news of Russia's plans to bring down its military expenditure should obviously have a soothing effect on the Nordic countries, who seem a bit paranoid about the imminent Russian "aggression." Nevertheless, the anti-Russian rhetoric lingers on.

In late November, the Russian magazine Kommersant informed that Russia plans to cut its 2017 military budget by almost $12 billion, only to follow up with more drastic cuts in 2018. According to Kommersant, defense expenditures will be cut by 26 percent compared to the 2016 budget. Together with Vladimir Putin's recent state of the nation address, where he specifically stressed that Russia is not looking for enemies, but wants friends, this was a welcome message in the Nordic countries.

"For us who have followed the internal political discussion, this is hardly surprising. The surprising thing is that his trend is not properly addressed in the Norwegian press. This trend is now being portrayed as something new, but it is not," Russia expert Julie Wilhelmsen from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) told Norwegian daily Aftenposten. "I prefer to regard Russia as a rational actor," Wilhelmsen added.

Researcher Una Hakvåg from the Defense Research Establishment (FFI) stated that the military budget cuts should signal Russia's reluctance to start a new arms race to the West.

"It is not inconceivable that the Russian authorities have noted that Russia's high defense priorities in recent years have led to concern and higher defense expenditure in Russia's immediate surroundings. The cuts can therefore be interpreted as unwillingness to start a new arms race," Una Hakvåg said.

If the proposed cuts are implemented, the Russian military will be back at the same budget as when Putin began his third presidential term four years ago, according to FFI estimates.

Former top Navy officer and independent defense expert, Jacob Børresen, who previously criticized the use of conflict rhetoric against Russia, pointed out that Norway should stop "turning the defense mode on and off" based on the level of its relations with Russia. Børresen lashed out at Norway's recent defense plan and predicted a coming thaw in Norwegian-Russian relations.

However, former Norwegian intelligence chief Kjell Grandhagen warned his compatriots against being lulled into a sense of false security.

"Putin's vision implies an ambitious Russia striving to be a global power and ready to fill the vacuum US and EU might leave in the coming years. The country's weak resource base may push Russia into sparring with rivals above its weight class. This is seldom of any good. Russia continues to represent a significant long-term challenge both globally and for us as its smaller neighbor," Kjell Grandhagen ventured in a comment on his Facebook page.

In Sweden, the possibility of defense cuts in Russia also triggered mixed reactions. Left Party defense spokesman Stig Henriksson expressed hope that it might put an end to the nascent arms race between Russia and the West. At the same time, he reminded that Russian defense was greatly dismantled after the fall of the USSR, as well as the fact that even Saudi Arabia runs a larger military budget than Russia, Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reported.

Meanwhile, Conservative defense policy spokesman Hans Wallmark did not share his colleague's optimism. By his own admission, he saw no signs of reduction in Russia's re-armament and neither did Moscow "turn down its ambitions." According to Wallmark, Russian "aggression" went on through Russian intelligence in Europe, disinformation campaigns and provocations in the Baltic Sea Region.

This opinion was indirectly shared by the Swedish Armed Forces, which in their recent report indicated a need for a drastic military budget increase to "keep pace with the Russian army," Svenska Dagbladet reported.