WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — On Monday, Vladimir Putin announced that the Russian armed forces had fulfilled their mission in Syria and their withdrawal would begin the following day.
"Russian air power has clearly allowed the Syrian army to retake the initiative, so in that sense Vladimir Putin is correct," Geraldi said on Monday. "The Syrian government is no longer in danger of falling."
In seven months, Russian air forces had successfully completed the strategic mission assigned to them, just as Putin had claimed, Geraldi noted.
"Propping up Assad was the principal objective of Moscow's intervention in the first place, so it can be considered a success. But the cease fire is still extremely fragile and could break down."
Geraldi also drew attention to the significance of Russia retaining the use of its naval base at Latakia and its air base at Hmeimim.
"Retaining the naval and attached air base means that Russia could return its aircraft and support personnel relatively easily if the situation seems to warrant such action."
However, Geraldi assessed the Russian move as an optimistic and confident step reflecting Moscow’s conviction that the Daesh terror group would be unable to recover from the pounding which it had received at the hands of Russian air power.
"I suspect that the Russian government is reasonably optimistic about the ceasefire and the prospects for genuine peace talks."
Geraldi also said Putin clearly did not want to waste or overuse Russia’s air combat resources, and wanted to give the strike units time to recover for possible future deployments.
"I don't know what the Russian role in Syria is costing, but reducing the expense of the operation by withdrawing personnel and planes might be part of the calculation."
