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Egypt and Jordan Eye Israel's Elections Closely, as Israelis Go to Polls for 4th Time in 2 Years

© AP Photo / Atef SafadiIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to cast his ballot during the Israeli legislative elections at a polling station in Jerusalem, Monday, March 2, 2020. Israelis have begun voting in the country's unprecedented third election in less than a year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to cast his ballot during the Israeli legislative elections at a polling station in Jerusalem, Monday, March 2, 2020. Israelis have begun voting in the country's unprecedented third election in less than a year. - Sputnik International, 1920, 23.03.2021
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Authorities in Cairo would like to see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retain his seat, thinks an Egyptian expert, due to his friendly ties with President Al-Sisi and his fight against terrorism. But in Jordan, whose relations with the Jewish state have seen ups and downs, the mood is that Amman won't shed a tear if Bibi leaves office.

As Israel goes to the polls, media surveys predict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a good chance of forming a government.

According to those polls, he is projected to get 32 of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, meaning he will still need 29 more spots to retain his title.

Friends in Need?

Although everything is still up in the air, Netanyahu, who will be relying on his natural allies - a bloc of religious parties - might still see himself re-elected and Amr Zakaria, a Cairo-based expert specialising in Israel-Egypt relations, says it might also serve the interest of his president, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi.

"Netanyahu and Al-Sisi have been working together for years. They respect and trust each other and they know what to expect from one another".

This Egyptian stance is understandable. Since Al-Sisi took control of Egypt in 2013, he has boosted relations with Israel, putting an emphasis on military cooperation between the two countries that have been facing the threat of Islamic fundamentalism in the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula.

© REUTERS / The Egyptian PresidencyEgyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
Egypt and Jordan Eye Israel's Elections Closely, as Israelis Go to Polls for 4th Time in 2 Years - Sputnik International, 1920, 23.03.2021
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

Egypt has been giving Israel more room for manoeuvring in the peninsula, way beyond what the 1979 treaty between the two states stipulated. Intelligence coordination was tightened and Cairo also adopted a rather hardline approach towards Hamas, an Islamic movement that controls the Gaza Strip and which is deemed a terrorist organisation by Israel.

Netanyahu, for his part, pushed for Egypt's interests in Washington and was reportedly the one who stood behind the 2014 US decision to release ten Apache helicopters initially halted by then-President Barack Obama following the 2013 coup that brought Al-Sisi to power.

Those who are now challenging the PM, says Zakaria, do not have that power and if the opposition wins the election, it will take time for the Egyptian leadership to "get used to and adjust" to the new boss in Israel. But the expert is certain that Cairo will certainly accept the change if it does end up taking place.

"At the end of the day, what Egypt cares about is their own set of interests [be it economy or security]. And once these are secured, Cairo will be working with whoever is elected".

Who Cares About the Palestinians?

However, it is not only about Cairo's political, military, and economic interests. It is also about the Palestinians and their striving for an independent state.

Throughout the years, Netanyahu hasn't done much to advance their cause. Direct talks between his government and the PA failed in 2014 and Israel continued to expand its settlement activity in the West Bank to the frustration of the Palestinians.

© AP Photo / Majdi MohammedPalestinians wave national flags during a protest
Egypt and Jordan Eye Israel's Elections Closely, as Israelis Go to Polls for 4th Time in 2 Years - Sputnik International, 1920, 23.03.2021
Palestinians wave national flags during a protest

This is why Netanyahu's replacement could bring a ray of hope for the Palestinians, especially given that Israel's opposition does have some liberal elements that speak up in support of equality and a two-state solution.

But Zakaria says Egypt has lost hope in Israel's liberal circles.

"In the past, we pinned our hopes on the opposition, especially those elements who have been advocating for a two-state solution. But over the years we got disappointed and realised that there is no real left in Israel. So, whoever can promote that issue will be accepted by Cairo, whether they will come from the left or the right".

Jordan Won't Be Sad if Bibi Leaves Office

Quite a different approach is observed in neighbouring Jordan that has seen relations with Israel turn sour over the past several years due to the situation around Jerusalem's holy sites, the Jewish state's sovereignty plans and, more recently, over the cancelled visit by the Kingdom's Crown Prince Hussein Bin Abdallah to the disputed city.

Daoud Kuttab, a Jordanian political analyst, pins this deterioration in relations on Israel and especially on Netanyahu, who has been steering the country for more than a decade.

The Jordanians, says the expert, find it hard to get along with Netanyahu and his policies but they've become accustomed to Israel's longest-serving PM. And yet, as the prospect of him leaving office might be nearing, Amman sees it as an opportunity that might bring the two nations closer.

© REUTERS / AMIR COHENPeople cycle next to a Blue and White party election campaign banner depicting its leader, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the March 23 ballot, in Tel Aviv, Israel March 17, 2021.
Egypt and Jordan Eye Israel's Elections Closely, as Israelis Go to Polls for 4th Time in 2 Years - Sputnik International, 1920, 23.03.2021
People cycle next to a Blue and White party election campaign banner depicting its leader, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the March 23 ballot, in Tel Aviv, Israel March 17, 2021.

The only catch is that even if Netanyahu is replaced, the ones who end up taking charge might be even more radical than Bibi himself, thinks the Jordanian expert.

Kuttab doesn't have any illusions about Israel's opposition.

"The right-wing bloc is scary and worrisome. The liberal one has been a disappointment. But one thing is for sure, if Netanyahu leaves, relations between Israel and Jordan will surely improve".
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