Tehran, Watch Out: German Analyst Warns of Potential US Attack on Iran

A potential military intervention by Washington would destabilize the region and lead to new refugee inflows that would again affect European countries the most, German political analyst Josef Braml said in an interview with Sputnik.

If National Security Advisor John Bolton manages to work his way forward with his harsh rhetoric, Washington is likely to take military action against Iran, political scientist and expert on transatlantic relations with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) Josef Braml said in an interview with Sputnik.

"I have had in mind that the second supporter of Assad — not only Russia, but also Iran — would be punished more directly," Braml stated.
Possible Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal

Iran could repeat Russia's fate and become subject to enhanced sanctions by Washington, the analyst argued.

READ MORE: Trump Warns Iran Against Restarting Nuclear Program

So far, the newly appointed National Security Advisor John Bolton could not yet put his harsh rhetoric into practice, but this might change quite soon, Braml said.

"I assume that not only the new National Security Adviser John Bolton, but also [CIA chief] Mike Pompeo are very critical of Iran. Don't be surprised if the nuclear deal with Iran is canceled in May. After that, there are quite few options left: Either America lives with the nuclearization of Iran, or it suggests preventive measures. I suspect the latter is more likely," the researcher stated.

New refugee movements

According to Braml, Iran could become another hotspot in the Middle East, if the worst scenario takes place. That would further destabilize the region and trigger new refugee movements toward Western countries.

At the same time, Washington won't be affected by these developments due to its distant geographic location, and the main burden of the migration crisis will again lie on Europe, he argued.

Domestic Benefits for Trump

In addition, such a turn of events might prove beneficial for US President Donald Trump, Braml argued.

In his opinion, Trump needs an external threat to maintain his position in the country.

"It could help unite the country and yet again win over its population," the analyst concluded.

Trump has repeatedly criticized the JCPOA — negotiated by the previous US President Barack Obama's administration — as being perhaps the worst deal in US history and threatened to withdraw the United States from the agreement if it was not amended.

On July 14, 2015, China, Germany, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — collectively referred to as the P5+1 group — signed the JCPOA with Iran. The accord stipulated a gradual lifting of anti-Iran sanctions in exchange for Tehran maintaining the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.