While then-President Barack Obama suggested the war was over in December 2014, when NATO officially ended its combat operations in Afghanistan, around 8,400 US troops remained stationed in the war-torn country. The election of Donald Trump as president raised hopes US involvement would end outright although others are more circumspect — the same optimism attended Barack Obama's election in 2008.
Omar Samad, the former Afghan ambassador to France and Canada, told Sputnik that while there are "few hints" as yet as to what Trump's administration will do in Afghanistan, "all indications" are there will be some level of continued commitment to the Afghan 'mission.'
"I don't see why the US would disengage quickly. It would be a terrible strategic move, contrary to US interests, spelling trouble for the Afghan government, emboldening the Taliban and other terror groups in and around Afghanistan to take more drastic measures, producing regional instability," Mr. Samad told Sputnik.
On the campaign trail, Trump was repeatedly and vehemently critical of past US policy in the Middle East, particularly the strategy of training and arming local militias to indirectly achieve military, political and economic goals in the region.
However, Mr. Samad believes Trump could reverse his stance, as "aligning with people on the ground" with the same "objectives" can be an effective means of fighting terrorism. The Islamic world is potentially the US' best ally in the fight against localized terrorism, as they are its primary victims. Mr. Samad added.
Moreover, he says Afghanistan welcomes the appointment of General Michael Flynn as US national security adviser, and James Mattis as US Defense Secretary.
"Afghans are hopeful the experience these generals have in region will help shape policy in a realistic, effective manner. Past policy was wishy-washy — it didn't identify risk factors, or change them. Flynn and Mattis are familiar with the Taliban — we know where their sanctuaries can be bound, where their support lies, and who their allies are. This perspective will allow the generals to take a strategic view and adopt the policies necessary for dealing with the group," Mr. Samad continued.
However, Mr. Samad concluded that Pakistan — "historically the main thorn in the side of Afghanistan" — complicated the prospect for a cessation of hostilities.
"There are distinct factions of the Taliban, one which is amenable to peace, another allied to terrorist groups and state sponsors of terrorism. Policy must make note of this distinction, and be reshaped accordingly, or the same mistakes will keep being made."
