In India, US Troop Pullout From Afghanistan Viewed as Precursor to Greater Focus on China

At the peak of its military involvement in Afghanistan, the US commanded approximately 130,000 coalition troops. Some in India’s security establishment endorse the view that the US developed an “unsaid understanding” with the Taliban as early as in 2018, finally leading to signing of the 2020 peace treaty in Doha.

While there is clearly a concern in New Delhi about the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan as a result of the US troop pullout from the nation, a view in the Indian security establishment is that the development also signals the possibility of a greater American focus on China’s western frontier.

“The US is bound to focus on scaling up its military presence in the resource-rich central Asian Republics, as the western provinces of China (Xinjiang and the Tibet Autonomous Regions) get more restive,” security sources told Sputnik.

The proposed presence of US military in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan also featured in discussions held between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva this June.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reportedly said that Putin had warned Biden against having bases in the former Soviet republics, currently part of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

The US State Department last month also announced the creation of a new “Quad” platform comprising itself and Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan to enhance “regional connectivity” and “stability” in the Central Asian region.

China shares borders with three of the five central Asian nations — Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, all of which have been viewed as crucial to Beijing to “secure” the energy and connectivity lines (as part of One Belt, One Road projects).

“The Chinese have been relocating troops to the People’s Liberation Army’s western command and scaling up infrastructure there. They already see their weaknesses,” sources say.

Indian intelligence officials estimate that China has deployed some 50,000 troops at the Ladakh border (up from 15,000 last year) and has stationed two S-400 ‘Triumf’ anti-aircraft units in the region. Additionally significant improvements have been carried out at the Hogan airbase. A new Chinese airbase is said to be coming up in Shakche, between already-existing airstrips in Kashgar and Hogan.

The “worry” on the Chinese side is that India could affect stability at the western border and directly threaten the BRI projects from the tri-junction border, lying close to the Indian air force base Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) near the contested Depsang Plains area.

“The Galwan Valley incident last year and the ongoing border standoff is just a distraction. Beijing’s real motive is to keep India engaged here so that it doesn’t become part of an effort to counter the Chinese presence in Afghanistan or Central Asia,” sources indicate.

PLA’s Western Theatre Command covers nine Chinese provinces, including Tibet and Xinjiang. The border with India is also managed as part of the Western Command.

The “closely-watched visit” of President Xi Jinping to Tibet last month, his first since assuming the presidency, reflects Beijing’s heightened concerns on the prevailing situation on its western borders, Indians say.

This undated handout photograph released by the Indian Army on February 16, 2021 shows People Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers during military disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) at the India-China border in Ladakh

© AFP 2023 / INDIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

Xi, who also heads the Central Military Commission, appointed General Xu Qiling to head the western command last month, the third person to do so over the last year.

Like India, China shares a border with Pakistan-administered Kashmir; it also shares a a 90-kilometre mountainous stretch with Afghanistan.

Since the takeover of Kabul began, US President Biden has already discarded the “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan by claiming in an interview that Washington would defend the self-governing Chinese province as it would a NATO ally in case Taipei is attacked.

“We can expect more such support from the US (on China’s western frontiers) in coming days,” say Indian sources.

‘Not Directly Linked’

Former Indian Ambassador and strategic affairs expert Anil Trigunayat believes that there could be an “indirect” link between the American troop pullout from Afghanistan and the prospect that it may lead Washington to further scale up its military presence around Chinese frontiers.

“I don’t think there is a direct link. There was already tiredness in the US about its so-called forever war in Afghanistan. But, obviously, one can’t rule out an indirect connection,” Trigunayat, who has formerly served as Delhi’s envoy to Jordan and Libya, told Sputnik.

The Indian ex-diplomat points out that the US has already prioritised India’s role in its ‘Indo-Pacific Strategic Framework’, the document which was declassified by the Trump administration during the end of its term in January.

The 10-page US policy document says that “a strong India would act as a counter-balance to China”.

“India's preferred partner on security issues is the United States. The two cooperate to preserve maritime security and counter Chinese influence in South and Southeast Asia and other regions of mutual concern,” it says.

Further, the official document states that India also maintains the “capacity to counter border provocations by China”.

Objections to the US' Indo-Pacific strategy have come from the highest levels of Chinese leadership, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi stating last month that it should be “dumped” altogether as it “undermines peace and stability” in the region.