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Will Britain, the EU Choose to Intervene in Afghanistan's Affairs Again?

© AFP 2023 / LUDOVIC MARINBritain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson and France's President Emmanuel Macron take part in a bilateral meeting during the G7 summit in Carbis bay, Cornwall on June 12, 2021.
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson and France's President Emmanuel Macron take part in a bilateral meeting during the G7 summit in Carbis bay, Cornwall on June 12, 2021.  - Sputnik International, 1920, 24.08.2021
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European powers should stay out of Afghanistan and not facilitate a new round of civil war, warns French politician and journalist Karel Vereycken, referring to Ahmad Massoud and allied resistance commanders' requests for military aid sent to President Emmanuel Macron.
Conflicting reports continue to filter out of the Panjshir Valley, the home of the National Resistance Front, formed by military leader Ahmad Massoud and first vice president of Afghanistan Amrullah Saleh who declared himself caretaker president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
After the Taliban* besieged the two leaders and their forces in the valley, The Telegraph reported on 23 August, citing an anonymous adviser to Massoud, that the 32-year old military leader "was looking for a way to capitulate with his honour intact".
Earlier in the day, French political activist and publicist Bernard-Henri Lévy, often referred to in France as BHL, insisted in an article for The Wall Street Journal that Massoud – who earlier called upon western countries for military aid – would not give up fighting.
According to Politico, Massoud, the son of legendary field commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, also known as "the Lion of Panjshir", has pinned his hopes on France amid Washington's hasty withdrawal. In a letter to Lévy, published in the Journal du Dimanche on 14 August, the younger Massoud asked BHL to make a direct appeal to President Emmanuel Macron "that France is our last resort, the only hope that is left for us".

Brits Apparently Luring Europeans Into New Trouble

It is no coincidence that Lévy is touting the emerging anti-Taliban resistance amid the US withdrawal, according to Karel Vereycken, a political analyst, journalist, and vice president of Solidarite & Progres, a political party founded by Jacques Cheminade. Vereycken suspects that a campaign for further meddling in Afghanistan's affairs is brewing in Europe.
"The EU's foreign policy is generally dominated by Anglo-American views", the French politician notes. "BHL and his British co-thinkers of the Henry Jackson Society see the Taliban takeover as a victory of China, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia, all considered as 'dangerous autocratic regimes' threatening their 'rules based international order'".
On 20 August, the influential British think tank Policy Exchange published an op-ed by Sir John Jenkins who insisted the Taliban would never turn into responsible power brokers: "The things we generally ask of Islamists – essentially to become more like us – would make them cease to be Islamist". According to Jenkins, the Taliban's victory could embolden other Islamist groups and create new threats to Britain. While the Afghan insurgents "have reportedly offered assurances to Russia, China, Pakistan, and Iran that Afghan territory will not be used by hostile forces to attack those respective nations", the Taliban cannot be trusted, according to him.
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to pressure the US to delay its pullout from the country at an emergency G7 meeting on 24 August, according to media reports. The Taliban has already issued a warning that the group will not tolerate further delays.
"London is convening a G7 meeting to worsen the crisis", deems Vereycken. "They clearly want to poison the well before leaving the oasis and even turn Afghanistan into another Syria".
According to the French politician, Lévy and like-minded scholars and policymakers in Europe are seeking to disrupt the long-anticipated political settlement in Afghanistan.

Hidden Flaws in Afghan Resistance

Europeans have so far not rushed to provide support to the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan although Massoud and Saleh appear to maintain longstanding ties with the western intelligence apparatus.
According to The New York Times, there is "broad agreement" within the CIA and France's Directorate-General for External Security (DGSE) that the son of "the Lion of Panjshir" could provide intelligence to the West once American forces are withdrawn. The newspaper also notes that western intelligence operatives have held preliminary meetings with Massoud, although no formal agreements have been struck.
​When it comes to Saleh, the former VP, who has recently declared himself acting president of Afghanistan, was the head of the powerful Afghan security apparatus, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) between 2004 and 2010. In that position, Saleh developed close working relations with British, American, French, and German intelligence services, according to the analyst.
An official document from the French Office for Refugees and Apatrids (OFPRA), cited by Vereycken, indicates that the NDS was founded in 2001 and was funded by the CIA. The analyst notes that the NDS participated in the financing of uprising groups, having men in the Afghan Special Forces, and special units trained by the CIA. "The last four reports of the UNAMA assessed that torture is widespread in the NDS facilities, especially in Kandahar", Vereycken remarks.
​At the same time, western intelligence services weren't so sure that the son of "the Lion of Panjshir" would be capable of organising a viable anti-Taliban resistance, according to a May 2021 report in The New York Times.
"Massoud Junior is popular in the tiny but strategic Panjshir Valley but being the 'son of his father' isn't enough to make him a national resistance leader", says the French politician, adding that Amrullah Saleh does not appear to command considerable popular support either due to his role in the failed government of Ashraf Ghani and his work in the NDS.
​Massoud and Saleh also disagree on a number of issues: "Massoud wants a deal with Pakistan, while Saleh sees them as the guiding hand between the Taliban he despises", the analyst notes.
Emmanuel Macron's poll numbers are low, Vereycken notes, adding that hypothetically the president might have been seduced by an opportunity to boost his public image by interfering in Afghan affairs on the side of the son of the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud.
"So far, the EU and France have not taken positions", the analyst says. "It's main worries are getting out its nationals and citizens".
He hopes Macron will recognise that times have changed and that "the West should stay out of Afghanistan but could help the efforts of Afghanistan's neighbours to contribute to regional reconstruction".
*The Taliban is a terrorist organisation banned in Russia and many other countries.
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