Stephen Norman, chief executive of UK car giant Vauxhall Motors, has said a no deal Brexit could benefit his company.
Quoted in Autocar magazine as describing the UK motor-vehicle market as “incredibly difficult” and “not just overheated but absolutely scalding” as manufacturers struggle to clear large stocks, over-ordered at the beginning of the year, Norman nonetheless noted in the first nine months of 2019 Vauxhall had managed to restore 0.2 percent of the 7.7 percent market share it lost in 2018.
Moreover, he suggested the company’s patriotic branding and recent emphasis on ‘Britishness’ in its marketing activities may mean an upside in the event of a no deal – the company’s current slogan is ‘A British Brand Since 1903’ – increasing the firm’s market share by up to 0.5 percent.
For example, Dr Graham Gudgin, an economist at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Business Research, believes if the UK reverts to World Trade Organisation terms UK exports will be diverted to the home market and other destinations, and EU imports will be displaced by UK production and imports from third countries, aided by a weaker pound. These offsetting shifts in sales patterns will, he posits, mean the net effect on UK GDP of a WTO Brexit will be a small fraction of the effect on UK-EU trade, amounting to a mere 0.5 percent of UK GDP.
Analysis by Dr. Ian Napier also suggests the UK fishing industry could potentially double in size after Brexit, as the country takes full control of a natural resource which is mostly harvested by EU boats at present, with catches rising up to £700m – 800 million annually, offsetting a third of potential trade losses.
