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Erdogan Wins President Election Without Run-Off as Predicted by Analysts

© REUTERS / Umit BektasTurkish President Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his grandchildren, casts his ballot at a polling station in Istanbul, Turkey
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by his grandchildren, casts his ballot at a polling station in Istanbul, Turkey - Sputnik International
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ANKARA (Sputnik) - Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected as Turkish president in Sunday's snap election, an outcome that was predicted by many experts, but what they did not foresee was the leader winning without the need for a second round of voting.

According to preliminary results, Erdogan has secured 52.6 percent of the vote with 99.9 percent of ballots counted. Muharrem Ince, the candidate from the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), came in second with 30.6 percent of the vote and conceded the victory to Erdogan.

No Run Off

In April, Erdogan called for early parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in June, moving them up from the initially scheduled time from of November 2019. This left all candidates with less time to prepare for the race.

READ MORE: Erdogan Wins Re-Election in Turkey; Deep Racism in US Education System

The CHP’s Ince failed to make it to the run-off despite an energetic campaign, leaving many experts, who believed that Erdogan's victory would come only in the second tour, to be proven wrong.

"While all the expectations pointed toward an Erdogan victory, it was not expected before the second round of voting. Despite an energized campaign around the candidacy of CHP’s Muharrem Ince, the opposition failed to capitalize on this grassroots mobilization," Dr. A. Kadir Yildirim, a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, told Sputnik.

However, the Turkish opposition did the best it could do given the resources it had, Dr. Abdullah Aydogan, a research scholar at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, told Sputnik.

"Looking at what the opposition had in terms of campaigning resources (money and media), I cannot call it an opposition failure overall. In other words, if we consider how the government restricted the opposition, the opposition did a great job until the election day. The competition was truly unfair. The opposition had almost no media appearance," Aydogan said.

Parliamentary Election

In the parliamentary election, held on the same day, the People's Alliance, made up of Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), won 53.7 percent of the vote with 99.9 percent of ballots counted. The Nation Alliance, which brings together four opposition parties — the CHP, Iyi Party (IYI), Felicity Party (SP), and Democrat Party (DP) — gained 33.4 percent of the vote. The Pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) received 11.7 percent of the vote.

"There was this campaign slogan 'one vote for Ince, one for HDP' among some CHP voters. The slogan became popular simply because the pre-election analyses showed that if HDP fails to enter the parliament, AKP will capture overwhelming majority of the seats that are reserved for the eastern provinces," Dr. Aydogan said.

According to the expert, some CHP voters cast ballots strategically, choosing the HDP instead of their own party to ensure that the AKP did not hold most the seats reserved for the eastern provinces.

"This explains why CHP votes decreased overall, and why HDP votes remained similar despite the ballot boxes were relocated in southeastern districts. Because of this move, HDP votes decreased in the southeast districts. However, when we look at the CHP-strongholds, HDP votes increased," Dr. Aydogan said.

The only surprise of the parliamentary elections came in the form of the MHP winning as much as it did, Dr. Yildirim believed.

"The lone surprise of the election was the performance of the nationalist MHP. Despite a low-key campaign effort, the party outdid expectations and secured 11 percent of the national vote. The party’s electoral alliance with the AKP carried the party to the parliamentary majority yet again. Yet, unlike years past when the AKP had full control over the parliamentary majority, now the party will need to work with MHP," the expert said.

Observers

Turkish voters had a "genuine choice" but Erdogan and his party had an "undue advantage" in the media, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) concluded omn Monday, citing international observers.

People walk past a poster for Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul, Turkey, June 25, 2018. The poster reads: Our people won, Turkey won, Thank you istanbul - Sputnik International
Turkish Elections: Polarization Will Not Disappear After Erdogan Win – Analyst
The OSCE said election day procedures were "generally followed," although there were some concerns over impartiality and transparency of some of the steps.

Ignacio Sanchez Amor, the special coordinator of the OSCE short-term observer mission in Turkey, said Monday that the two members of the mission were not allowed to enter Turkey.

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) plans to present their full report on the election in Turkey in October, after briefing all of the teams from different cities, the head of their observer mission, Olena Sotnyk, told Sputnik.

Constitutional Amendments

The elections came after the Turks approved giving more power to the president in a referendum in April last year, including the power to appoint high-level judges. The office of the prime minister was abolished under the same constitutional reform. The amendments were seen as controversial by the opposition.

According to the head of the PACE observer mission, the amendments were approved by the people and therefore could not be questioned, but the balance of power and democratic control in the country could be studied.

"We have some legal assessments and we are trying to analyze best practices on legal framework… It doesn’t matter what kind of system state will choose. Because you have to remember that it was referendum and people voted in this referendum. Now it is a matter if there are some safeguards or not," Sotnyk told Sputnik.

Kurdish Party Succeeds in Polls

The HDP won largely because of the voters who wanted to limit the presence of the AKP in the parliament, Dr. Yildirim argued.

"Those voters who aimed to contain AKP’s parliamentary power viewed enabling HDP as the most effective course of action to achieve this goal. Because the HDP and the AKP are direct competitors for many of the same seats in southeastern parts of Turkey where it’s heavily Kurdish-populated, any vote for a party other than HDP would electorally benefit the AKP so long as the HDP failed to pass the 10-percent national threshold," Yildirim said.

The Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Turkey, and the government's relationship with Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which advocates more autonomy for the Kurds, has often been violent. Turkey has been wary of the predominantly Kurdish militia in neighboring Syria, the People's Protection Units, which it thinks to be linked to the PKK.

READ MORE: Erdogan Tightens Grip in Turkey After Election Victory

The PKK, outlawed in Turkey as a terrorist organization, announced the suspension of all its anti-government activities to let Kurdish voters cast their ballots at the snap election.

EU-Turkish Relations

Turkey's relationship with the European Union has had its highs and lows in the last several years. The European states have expressed their concerns over Ankara's crackdown on suspected supporters of the failed coup of 2016. Despite this, however, Turkey and the EU states reached a deal on migration in 2016, stipulating that Ankara would take back any undocumented migrant who entered the bloc through Turkey in exchange for certain incentives.

Ballots of Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections are being counted at a polling station in Diyarbakir, Turkey June 24, 2018 - Sputnik International
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Turkey's referendum on constitutional amendments sparked some controversy in EU countries with large Turkish diasporas. Several pro-reform campaigning events were canceled by local authorities in Austria, Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

In addition, a diplomatic spat between Ankara and Amsterdam ensued after a plane carrying Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was denied permission to land in the Netherlands while mid-air. Turkish Minister of Family and Social Policy Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya was declared persona non grata and escorted off the territory of the Netherlands. Erdogan denounced the actions of the Dutch authorities, going as far as to compare them to "Nazi remnants."

Hisyar Ozsoy, deputy chair of Turkey's pro-Kurdish HDP party, believed Erdogan's post-election foreign policy would soften.

"I think he [Erdogan] will try to eliminate the damage he has made in foreign affairs. He will try to develop more constructive relationships. Otherwise, the economic crisis in the country may deepen," Ozsoy told Sputnik.

Dr. Yildirim thinks the criticism of the European Union might abate in short term, but Turkish foreign policy in unlikely to change.

"Domestic politics do not necessitate a shift in foreign policy for Erdogan. While the intensity of criticism toward the EU might subside in the short term, stirring anti-Western sentiment is a pillar of Erdogan’s political rhetoric. So, it will continue when the occasion calls for it," the expert said.

Relations With Russia, US

The policy in Syria, based on concerns over the Kurdish minority there, is unlikely to change either, Dr. Yildirim added.

The elections came against the backdrop of an ongoing military campaign in Syria, where Turkish forces are currently controlling an area in the north of the country. In January, Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch in the north of Syria, citing concerns over Kurdish militias active there. Meanwhile, Turkey has remained one of the guarantors of the ceasefire regime in Syria, alongside Russia and Iran.

Unal Cevikoz, the deputy chair of the CHP responsible for public diplomacy, stressed that cooperation with Russia on the Syrian peace process was crucial for finding a political solution to the embattled Middle Eastern country's crisis.

"The Russian government has been able to communicate to the Syrian government in Damascus easily and Turkey has always been in good relations with some of the opposition groups in Syria… And that is reason why Russian-Turkish partnership in Syria is absolutely important," Cevikoz told Sputnik.

The CHP representative stressed the importance of restoring "trust and confidence" in the relationship with another important ally, the United States, and suggested showing that Turkey was governed by the rule of law.

"In order to re-establish trust and confidence we have to show to our American allies and American colleagues that Turkey is again a country which will pursue rule of law, which will be governed by the rule of law, which will become a democratic country and which will certainly have bilateral relations in a very transparent and in a very frank manner with the United States," Cevikoz said.

Turkey's relationship with the United States was tested when the former demanded the extradition of cleric Fethullah Guelen, whom it believes responsible for the attempted coup in Turkey two years ago. The US government has demanded that Ankara first provide proof of his ties to the affair.

In general, experts agreed that Erdogan's foreign policy would likely stay largely the same as before.

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