10 years GDP will be lower by around 3 percent in Ireland and the number of people employed would be 40,000 fewer under hard Brexit scenario, according to Gabriel Fagan, chief economist of the country’s Central Bank.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Should the United Kingdom withdraw from the European Union in a "hard Brexit," the scenario could severely impact Ireland's economy by putting up to 40,000 jobs and a loss of 3 percent of GDP within 10 years at stake, Gabriel Fagan, chief economist of the country’s Central Bank said.
"Under a hard Brexit scenario our estimates suggest that after 10 years GDP will be lower by around 3 percent and the number of people employed would be 40,000 fewer," Fagan said.
He also pointed out that Ireland would face more negative consequences in case that there is no free trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
"The effects will be much worse if no free trade agreement can be reached," Fagan said.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty outlining the country's exit from the European Union on March 29. Under the article, the process is to be concluded within two years from the withdrawal launch.
"Hard Brexit" is a term which describes a parallel withdraw of the United Kingdom from the European Union and the EU single market. This scenario would mean that the nation would no longer have access to four freedoms: free movement of people, goods, services and capital. May’s government made signals it was going to opt for hard Brexit in order to have control over migration processes.
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