- Sputnik International
World
Get the latest news from around the world, live coverage, off-beat stories, features and analysis.

Geopolitical Balancing Act: What Russia Can Expect From the New German President

© REUTERS / Fabrizio BenschGerman president-elect, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, reacts after the first round of voting of the German presidential election at the Reichstag in Berlin, February 12, 2017
German president-elect, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, reacts after the first round of voting of the German presidential election at the Reichstag in Berlin, February 12, 2017 - Sputnik International
Subscribe
On Sunday, former German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was elected president, receiving the support of 931 members of the 1,260 member Federal Convention, a special electoral body that convenes to choose the head of state. Steinmeier's election has left Russian and German observers wondering about the future of Russian-German relations.

Steinmeier left his post as foreign minister last month to seek the presidency, following President Joachim Gauck's announcement last June that he would not seek a second term due to old age. 

Steinmeier, 61, is a veteran Social Democratic Party (SPD) politician whose career in federal politics goes back to the late 1990s. In November, he was approved as candidate for the presidency for the country's ruling coalition government, which includes the SPD and the Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier - Sputnik International
Frank-Walter Steinmeier Elected President of Germany
Some observers believe that Steinmeier's candidacy was the result of behind the scenes maneuvering by Merkel to sideline the politician from elections for the Bundestag in September. Others, however, say that Steinmeier's candidacy was connected to problems in the CDU, particularly the party's lack of popular, charismatic candidates who could compete with the former foreign minister for the job. 

Steinmeier will officially step into the office on March 17, when Gauck's term expires.

Implications for Russian-German Relations

Most observers admit that the German presidency as a post that is "largely procedural" and ceremonial, something inherent to the Federal Republic's post-WWII constitution, which aimed to avoid deadlock and political inertia stemming from competing sources of power, which helped fuel Adolf Hitler's rise during the interwar period. Others, however, have pointed out that Steinmeier's background and status, both in Germany and abroad, will add significance to the post, particularly in light of his senior role in the SPD.

As to what impact Steinmeier's election will have on Russian-German relations, Moscow seems to expect at least a slight improvement, particularly compared to the state of affairs under President Gauck.

President Vladimir Putin became one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate President-elect Steinmeier on Sunday, sending him a congratulatory telegram which expressed his hope that constructive dialogue, along with cooperation aimed at strengthening stability and security in Europe, would continue under the incoming president. Putin also invited Steinmeier to visit Russia at his convenience, according to a statement put out by the Kremlin.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, right, and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, left, talk as they pose for the media during a New Year's reception of German President Joachim Gauck at the Bellevue palace in Berlin, Germany, Tuesday, January 10, 2017. - Sputnik International
Germany Picks President, Anxious Merkel 'Sidelines' Potential Threat Steinmeier
A visit to Russia by a sitting German president would be a significant gesture in its own right, observers say, given that in his five years as president, Gauck never once came to Moscow. He refused to do so even before the deterioration of relations between Russia and Western countries, and refused, for example, to attend the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi.

Steinmeier, meanwhile, has made it a habit of visiting Moscow regularly, even after the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, and hinted to reporters Sunday that dialogue and negotiations would be necessary, and cannot be avoided, even with the most "difficult partners."

© Sputnik / Michael Klimentyev / Go to the mediabankA meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier, March 23, 2016.
A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier, March 23, 2016. - Sputnik International
A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier, March 23, 2016.

Russian senator and international affairs expert Alexei Pushkov expressed his hope that Steinmeier's election would lead to an era of improved Russian-German relations. "Where President Gauck demanded that Moscow 'repent' for its sins, Steinmeier favors overcoming the conflict with Russia," Pushkov tweeted on Sunday.

"Steinmeier's election is a good sign for Europe. Where President Gauck demanded that Moscow 'repent' for its sins, Steinmeier favors overcoming the conflict with Russia."

During his time as foreign minister, Steinmeier cautiously pushed for dialogue and a normalization of relations with Moscow, and claimed that attempts to isolate Russia in the international arena made no sense.

Still, not everyone believes that a Steinmeier presidency will lead to any significant changes in Russian-German relations. According to Vladislav Belov, the head of the Center for German Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Europe, Steinmeier will not be able to go out of his way to push for rapprochement with Russia. 

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Belov explained that as president, Steinmeier must "represent the policy of the coalition government, just as he had as foreign minister, where he strictly followed that the decisions that were taken by the government." That, according to the expert, makes any hoped-for rapprochement unlikely, particularly given Berlin's hard line on Russia.

Steinmeier, Belov noted, will certainly be a stronger personality in the presidency, but will have to follow Berlin's policy line. "Based on his professional experience, and given the qualities that characterize him as a professional politician, he will of course be stronger on foreign policy than his predecessors, including Horst Kohler, Christian Wulff and Gauck. But he will not challenge the line – the policy defined by the government," the expert stressed.

The plenary hall of the German lower house of Parliament Bundestag is pictured in preparation for the upcoming presidential elections during the Federal Assembly in Berlin, Germany - Sputnik International
How Does Germany Elect Its President?
German political analyst Stefan Meister, the head of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia, also noted that the president's role is largely that of figurehead. Accordingly, while "he can of course highlight key points, maintain contact, and go on visits," and may even influence policy as a senior leader in the SPD, he cannot dictate policy, he said.

At the same time, Meister doesn't think Merkel will oppose Steinmeier's visit to Moscow. Berlin, the analyst noted, has some important reasons – including the crisis in Ukraine, to seek improved relations with Russia. "Merkel has always played a game with Steinmeier: she would step out with a hard line against Moscow, and he, as foreign minister, would try to maintain a softer line. I think that they will continue to work in a similar style in the future," the analyst said.

Dr. Konstantin Vossing, a political scientist at Humboldt University in Berlin, also believes that Moscow should not expect any significant changes in the near future under Steinmeier. Any "hopes for a rapid improvement in relations are unlikely to materialize," he told RIA Novosti. Sanctions, for example, are not in the purview of the president's responsibilities.

For his part, political scientist Alexander Rahr believes that Steinmeier may be the best possible option that Russia can expect from Germany's current stock of politicians. "Of course, Steinmeier shared the Western consensus on Russia, and often criticized Moscow," Rahr noted. "But among Western politicians, he always been the one to say that the confrontation between Europe and Russia must not exist, and supported a common [political and economic] space from Lisbon to Vladivostok." 

© Sputnik / Michael Klimentyev / Go to the mediabankRussian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, background 2nd right, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, foreground right, during the Normandy format meeting between the leaders of Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France on settling the Ukrainian conflict, at the Paul Loebe Haus parliamentary building in Berlin. (File)
Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, background 2nd right, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, foreground right, during the Normandy format meeting between the leaders of Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France on settling the Ukrainian conflict, at the Paul Loebe Haus parliamentary building in Berlin. (File) - Sputnik International
Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, background 2nd right, and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, foreground right, during the Normandy format meeting between the leaders of Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France on settling the Ukrainian conflict, at the Paul Loebe Haus parliamentary building in Berlin. (File)

Steinmeier's visit to Russia would be about "correcting the historical mistake" of his predecessor, Rahr noted, adding that the President-elect can be expected to do everything in his power to see that relations are normalized as far as possible.

The Other Side of the Coin: Downturn in German-US Relations

Speaking to ZDF after his election, Steinmeier curiously chose to respond to a question about whether he would seek to improve relations with Moscow by pointing to the changes that are occurring in the transatlantic relationship with the United States, which for many decades has been the keystone of German foreign policy.

"In the past, we were always certain that we would have more difficult negotiating partners in the east," Steinmeier said. "Suddenly, we're confronted with a situation where we'll at the very least have to deal with uncertainty, but also difficulties in trans-Atlantic relations," he added. The world, the President-elect noted, now faces "a complete reordering of international relations."

U. S. President Donald Trump is depicted beheading the Statue of Liberty in this illustration on the cover of the latest issue of German news magazine Der Spiegel - Sputnik International
Why the US-European Relationship is on the Brink
Indeed, Steinmeier has previously said that the foundations of Germany's foreign policy – its alliance with the US, was under strain. Steinmeier had called President Trump a "hate preacher," refused to congratulate him on his election victory, and said that Germany should expect "turbulent times" ahead. Under Trump, the world order established in the late 20th century after the collapse of the Soviet Union was "over for good," the politician added.

Observers say that the crux of the conflict between Trump and Berlin stems from the fact that for the first time since the late 1940s, Germany faces a US president who is opposed to European integration, or at least to contributing American resources toward its realization.

© REUTERS / Fabrizio BenschOutgoing U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry receives the Grand Cross, First Class of the order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany from German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (R) at the Foreign Ministry in Berlin, Germany, December 5, 2016.
Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry receives the Grand Cross, First Class of the order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany from German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (R) at the Foreign Ministry in Berlin, Germany, December 5, 2016. - Sputnik International
Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry receives the Grand Cross, First Class of the order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany from German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (R) at the Foreign Ministry in Berlin, Germany, December 5, 2016.

In his first speech following his election, Steinmeier hinted that European integration would be a top priority for him as president. "We must have the courage to preserve freedom and democracy in a united Europe. We want to defend and must defend this foundation, which is not invulnerable. We are not living on an island of tranquility, but are part of this world, with all of its risks," Steinmeier said.

If Steinmeier is correct, and the German-US relationship does sour, the logical question that arises is: with all the problems Berlin faces at home (including economic slowdown, the migrant crisis, and the threat of terrorism) can it really avoid at least limited rapprochement with Moscow? The alternative is facing a politically hostile US to the west, an ambivalent Russia to the east, and the accumulated socio-economic problems in the EU all by itself.

Newsfeed
0
To participate in the discussion
log in or register
loader
Chats
Заголовок открываемого материала