'Just About Failing for Ages': JAFFA Economy Amid UK’s Post-Brexit Uncertainty

There is much speculation still being made on the topic of Brexit and how it will impact key sectors of the UK economy. But according to two economists who held a discussion at London's Southbank University on November 28, the next few years are set to be some of the most uncertain for the financial capital of the country in particular.

Following the Brexit vote, the race to succeed London as Europe's financial capital raised many questions. The French Prime Minister Manuel Valls told journalists soon after the UK's referendum results that many businesses based in London had already started planning to leave for other cities such as Dublin, Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Frankfurt and even Paris. 

"Paris is heavily regulated and so could be a difficult city for businesses to operate from, in comparison to in the UK. This is despite the fact that the French government said a red carpet was ready to welcome new companies to relocate their operations. Places such as Frankfurt, it must be noted, are significantly smaller than London but other cities certainly present a worthy option for companies to be based from — as a consequence of the Brexit vote for London," economics expert and Director of Z/Yen Group Limited, Ian Harris, told the conference in London.  

Harris also conveyed his thoughts on specific sectors he feels will be directly impacted in addition to the highly lucrative financial industries based in London.

That includes the property markets and service-based industries in the City of London that are likely to be affected by the issue of less EU citizens available for employment, as well as the drop in overall public confidence to spend on such sectors. He described an almost ripple effect directly as a result of the Brexit vote that was immediately felt by Londoners in particular. 

Brexit Vocabulary

Dr. Linda Yueh is an economics academic and broadcaster who also led the discussions during the conference:

"We are living through such significant change as a result of the Brexit vote in the UK, that this change itself even demands for a new set of vocabulary," she told the audience. 

Dr. Yueh referred to new buzzwords that previously didn't officially exist such as 'Brexit' used commonly to describe Britain's vote to leave its EU membership and 'post-truth' to describe a new political culture in which debate is framed largely by appeals to emotion rather than any factual connection from policy.

Post-truth is the Oxford Dictionaries Word of the Year 2016. Find out more: https://t.co/jxETqZMxsu pic.twitter.com/MVMuMyf83K

— Oxford Dictionaries (@OxfordWords) November 16, 2016​

'JAMS' which is the latest acronym used to describe the 'Just About Managing' sections of UK society was also mentioned as one of the new terms born from the referendum vote. 

This is a Government that is just about managing. The official figures have revealed a £220 billion Brexit black hole. #AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/dRzWES98bC

— Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) 23 November 2016​

And a new term referred to as 'JAFFA' was mentioned by Harris, which stands for 'Just About Failing For Ages', which could describe future prospects for Londoners.

"We are where we are with Brexit and yet no one quite knows for sure where that is. All we can say is that our changing EU status will cause economic uncertainty over the coming years for London as well as the whole of the UK. Maybe we will benefit in the long term, but that is a big 'maybe' — we mustn't also forget that there are broader changes that could also be imminent in wider Europe with elections coming up in France and also the referendum votes due to take place in Italy for example," Dr. Yueh said.

Post-Brexit Pessimism

Acknowledging the need for access to wider markets in order for the UK economy to grow and the crucial factor of negotiating strong trade agreements not just with the EU, but also internationally, Dr. Yueh felt that the City of London could find some challenges to be able to maintain its status as one of the leading financial capitals of the world, but she also emphasized the need for optimism: 

"Pessimists say that considering the time it will take to negotiate concrete trade agreements and bearing in mind that we are still officially in the EU, we have likely years before we know how we will do in the economic future of both London and the wider UK. Latest forecasts by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) as well as the Bank of England, have all projected loss for Britain in the near term, but in the longer term there could well be many positive aspects of being free to trade across international markets with the likes of China, USA, India and many others." 

An audience member at the conference spoke about the loss of faith the British public had on economic and political experts following the referendum campaigns, as well as a wider feeling of distrust and divisions that he felt has spread across British society across the UK. As one of the most diverse cities in Europe, he asked how London is changing on a cultural level: 

"There is an irony in how experts, and in particular economists, have been treated following the post-truth phases of the campaigns. In many ways, I can certainly notice the increase in demand to hear more opinions about what could happen as well as what actually will happen, but the real answer to this is that no one really knows," Dr. Yueh responded. 

"I do feel that Theresa May and her government need to be a lot more open with the public about the process of Brexit and that this whole feeling of keeping their cards hidden during negotiation stages, as well as their overall plans of action here onwards being so secretive, presents its own challenges. In the meantime we must push forward all attempts to collectively come together as a city, and as a country, to continue debating and also listening to as many views as possible." 

One thing is for sure, the demand for expert opinions has never been greater.