03:39 GMT +317 December 2017
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    Nigel Farage, United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) member and MEP waits for the start of a debate on the last European Summit at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, October 26, 2016.

    YouGov Poll Predicts Tory Party Popularity Boost... If UKIP 'Died'

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    The UK Independence Party (UKIP) has been in shambles since former leader Nigel Farage stepped down, with two leaders who followed resigning, MEP infighting at the EU Parliament on October 6 leading to one being taken away in an ambulance, and to top it off, the party has seen a fall in popularity ratings.

    Many UKIP donors have also pulled out, withdrawing their support for the party. All of these issues have led to questions being raised as to whether UKIP can survive post-Brexit and post-Farage Britain.

    YouGov ran a poll, for Election Data, which looked at whether the party could survive and if they didn't, who would reap the benefits of a UKIP "death"? YouGov also looked at what effect removing UKIP from the ballot paper would have on voting in general.

    The results revealed that the main beneficiary of a UKIP demise would be the Conservatives, who would see an increase of five percentage (47 percent) points in their poll numbers. However they would not be the only party that would pick up some extra points. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats would pick up two extra points. The Tory lead would therefore increase to 19 percent, which would be their biggest share of the vote since 1959.

    If UKIP "died," the Conservatives would almost definitely see an increase in the popularity of their party. 

    These results from YouGov come at a time when Prime Minister Theresa May has been aligning herself with similar UKIP policies, concerning those such as immigration and the return of grammar schools. 

    This appears to have made her a more viable PM then opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

    A Guardian newspaper poll showed that Mrs. May was more trusted on issues such as immigration, than her opposition counterpart.

    However 28 percent of UKIP supporters who were surveyed said that they would not vote if UKIP were not on the ballot. The YouGov results have shown, according to a spokesperson, that in the current political climate "the weaker UKIP are, the stronger the Tories will ultimately be." Thus, losing UKIP could have a big effect on future elections. 

    "It may be that the whole narrative of British politics shifts with unexpected consequences. It could be that a new party appears to pick up these same voters," a YouGov spokesperson said in an online statement.

    So, it seems a UKIP "death" would not only increase the Tory party's popularity, but also bring it back to the the 1950s, when it saw a peak in their ratings. However, for almost 30 percent of UKIP supporters, removing them would just encourage them not to vote at all, something that could work against the Tories as well. 

    Related:

    UKIP Candidate Kassam Withdraws From Leadership Race
    UKIP Clash in European Parliament Referred to French Police – Schulz
    UKIP Leadership Race: The Most Unpopular Job in UK Politics
    UKIP Confidence High Despite Troubles, Party Targets Labour Voters - YouGov Poll
    Tags:
    negative consequences, supporters, consequences, Brexit, referendum, poll, popularity, politics, immigration, YouGov, Labour Party, UKIP, Conservative Party, Nigel Farage, Theresa May, Europe, United Kingdom
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