Stay or Go? Poll Shows Brexit Could Go Either Way

According to new analysis by JPMorgan of recent opinion polls, the gap between the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union and the campaign to withdraw from the union has narrowed by half since February. It appears that “stay in” is currently in a 4% lead.

Ahead of the referendum on Britain's membership in the EU the campaigns have been going neck and neck. Back in the February the remain campaign was 8% ahead of the leave campaign.

Having examined recent polling data, JPMorgan said the campaign to remain in the EU averaged 47.2% in the last week of April while those who want out polled at 43.3%. 8.1% said they haven't yet decided.

The crucial vote will take place on June 23, 2016. Although the campaign to get Britain out of the European Union appears to have risen, odds still show a strong possibility of remaining.

"The bottom line is that 'remain' appears to have a near 4 percentage point lead over 'leave,'" JPMorgan's note for clients reads. "That lead has narrowed from around an 8 percentage point lead in late February, but has been reasonably stable over the last handful of weeks."

Fearing the impact of a British exit on their operations, some of the world's biggest banks have donated millions to the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign group, sources say.

On April 22, US President Barack Obama called on Britain to understand that the county would be placed "in the back of the queue" for trade deals with America if it decided to leave EU. The strongly-worded message, however, didn't much affect public opinion, according to the latest analysis.