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Members of left wing parties shout slogans behind a burning European Union flag during an anti-EU protest in the northern Greek port city of Thessaloniki, Sunday, June 28, 2015

Will the European Union Share the Fate of the Soviet Union?

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EU politicians and European heads of state are desperately looking for ways to save the European project, but a series of powerful anti-EU shocks, and growing public distrust makes a Soviet-style collapse seem almost inevitable, French economist Charles Gave suggests.

Beset by crises from all sides, from the prospects of a Brexit to the ongoing migrant crisis to a negative economic outlook, cracks have appeared in the EU project, France's Atlantico newspaper recalls.

Speaking to the newspaper, Charles Gave, an economist and president of the liberal think tank Institut des Libertes, was asked why he believes the European Union project may eventually face the same fate as the old Soviet Union.

"The disaster of the quotations of European banks shows that something has gone terribly wrong," the economist warned. "I have never seen a scenario where the collapse of major European banks was not followed by a recession in Europe. So the answer to your question is simple: if a recession happens in Europe in 2016, the euro will not survive." 

"For example," Gave recalled, "in Italy, bank debts already constitute 20% of GDP, and might cross the 30% or even 40% threshold, which is obviously not tenable. For years now, the euro has served as a financial Frankenstein: it is impossible to maintain a fixed exchange rate for countries that have such differing production capacities."

"I wrote back in 2002 that the euro would lead to too many houses in Spain, too many officials in France and too many factories in Germany, and that Europe would fall under German influence, with Germany remaining the only country with a positive net balance."

Building Blocs
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"As for the formation of a [single] European state," Gave noted, "France, Germany and Italy are real states – Europe is not. Europe is a civilization, not a state. The supporters of the euro have, for 15 years now, been killing the continent's economies, and if a recession begins in 2016, the European people will take the wheel away from those whom they did not elect – from [European Council President] Donald Tusk and [European Commission President] Jean-Claude Juncker. A union [in itself] does not necessarily indicate strength, because if that was the case, the Soviet Union would be the main world power…"

Ultimately, Gave suggests, "strength lies in a competitive economy, and not in a bloated organization which no one wants – one which destroyed the fruits of the labors of the founding fathers of Europe. Schumann, Adenauer and Piux XII desired to establish a Europe based on diversity. The malefactors who created the euro want instead to create a European nation…and are responsible for the looming catastrophe on the horizon."

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collapse scenario, predictions, analysis, European Union, Europe, Soviet Union
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  • Hagbard Celine
    It is a well known fact that complex systems cannot be constructed in a single go, but instead require a system of continous improvement.

    The idea of a federal state in Europe, a United Europe is good and will remain so. The reason behind this is, that international issues are often resolved unfairly by might and hence states require "mass" to "negotiate successfully".

    Therefore a centralisation of power is necessary, it cannot be done without.

    However, the more centralized power is within a state, the further the decision makers are from the people they should represent and hence the more corrupt or abusive the sytem becomes for the own citizens.

    It is a question of finding the right balance.

    Switzerland has the best political System in the world, it should be a model for a United Europe.
  • Glamoureus
    He has to agree Ukraina is a sink then

    So is assosiation agreement woth Bosnia, Moldavia, Georgia, Albania, Makedonia, etc

    Look at Rumania and Bulgaria, only exporting professional beggers.

    Look at Poland Tjeckis Slovakia Hungary, Croatia, they believed they would get same social standard and saleries as Germany.

    They still make about 500 Euro/month.

    And now US and EU gonna steal money out of these countries defence budget by outsourcing to NATO😘
  • Alabama Mothman
    We can only hope so.
  • anne00mariein reply toAlabama Mothman(Show commentHide comment)
    Alabama Mothman, My views, exactly. Fingers crossed and before they manipulate the voting figures for the Brexit.
  • klod.infobeez
    Yep. And it may produce much more Eltsines than Putins...

    Buy a yard to grow food and a gun to keep it. And, for now, buy rubles and gold coins...
  • megargy
    Big difference between Soviet Union & EU - 70 years of the citizens working together as part of the project whereas the citizens of the EU have never been part of the project.

    EU was a result of WW2 to consolidate the US/Nazi position having lost the war to the Soviets! To think differently is to be naive - The EU was never about the people & hence totally un-democratic.

    Who elected Ashton or Mogherini or Baroso or Junkers - very long list & why does the US secretly supervise everything ?
  • AnomicDust
    The 1991 referendum on maintaining USSR was overwhelmingly voted in favor. The new "democrats" ignored popular will and dissolved the union. Even so, Russia had been paying the bills for less developed members. Breakup opened a path toward further growth.
    Germany is paying both America's and junior members' bills by accepting refugees, passively sponsoring NATO wars/destabilizations, and slowly erasing its national identity. This can go on until nothing remains.
  • enrique_costas
    It is not the same because there is no obligation to join or to stay in the European Union. Countries wait in a queue for year to join the EU, and until now none has left (even if the UK can be the first) In fact, they will hold next June a referendum to decide if they stay or leave the EU...and that didn´t happen in the USSR. The USSR was basically a nation-state, the former Russian Empire, while the EU is still mainly an economic community.
  • siberianhusky
    The EU should have never gone beyond the 3 founding nations of what was the BENELUX.
    The present quagmire has to run it course and before it gets to the end it will get pretty ugly.

    The interesting sideline that will come out of that that it will greatly effect what the American strangle hold has over Europe. No longer control and bullying 1 big block of nations but a lot of nonfunctional poor and corrupt states.
  • michael
    we can only hope..
  • michaelin reply toHagbard Celine(Show commentHide comment)
    Hagbard, agree with you re Switzerland!
  • michaelin reply tomegargy(Show commentHide comment)
    megargy, agreed! that's spot on - the CCCP where people were working together.!
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