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Cameron’s Conundrum as Britain Heads for the EU Exit Door

© AP Photo / Francisco SecoBritain's Prime Minister David Cameron
Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron - Sputnik International
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UK Prime Minister David Cameron is facing a backbench rebellion over the In-Out referendum on its membership of the European Union (EU) days after a poll showed that 51 percent of those who had made up their minds wanted the UK to quit the union.

A supporter wears a tee-shirt as he waits for Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain's anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) to speak at the launch of the party's EU referendum campaign, in London, Britain September 4, 2015 - Sputnik International
Britain's Exit From EU Gains Popular Support – Poll
The news will come as a shock to Cameron, who is attempting to re-negotiate his country's terms of membership in an attempt to keep Britain inside the EU while assuaging Euroskeptics within his own party and outside. Cameron is under pressure to bring back more powers from Brussels to Westminster, at a time when the EU is facing its biggest challenge in decades over the migrant and refugee crisis. 

The question being put to the UK population at the referendum — which must be held some time before the end of 2017 — is: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?" with the answer options a simple "Yes" or "No". The Survation poll this weekend showed that — excluding undecided voters — 51 percent would answer "yes" and 49 percent "no".

Cameron's Conservatives lost power in 1997 and remained out of power as a single party for eighteen years over Europe. The party was riven with arguments over the Maastricht Treaty which re-defined the European Union and called for political and economic integration.

By June this year, 50 Conservative lawmakers had signed up to Conservatives for Britain, the campaign to get Britain out of the union and its leader Steve Baker predicts that 100 Tory MPs — out of the 330 total — would join ahead of the referendum.

In the House of Commons Monday, Cameron is facing criticism from his own lawmakers after it emerged the legislation for the referendum contains a clause allowing for a snap election to be held within a month of it being called. This would go against the usual 10 week period between a referendum being called and its occurrence, meaning that last-minute campaigning would be shortened.

Euroskepticism On The Rise

The anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) has seen its popularity increase since it was formed in 1993 — a year after the Maastricht Treaty was signed.  In the 2015 general election, UKIP polled 12.7 percent of the share of the vote — putting it in third place behind the Conservatives and Labour — beating the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. 

Labour's Jeremy Corbyn arrives to take part in a Labour party leadership final debate, at the Sage in Gateshead, England, Thursday, Sept. 3, 2015. - Sputnik International
No Wars, No Dodgy Trade Deals: Corbyn Challenges Britain’s Status Quo

Meanwhile, the Labour Party in Britain is facing its own difficulties. Left-winger Jeremy Corbyn is heading for victory in a move that is likely to split the party in two. While not anti-EU, Corbyn voted against the signing of the Maastricht Treaty (and against the subsequent Lisbon Treaty which gave more power to the European Parliament among other things).

At the time he told parliament: "The Maastricht treaty… takes away from national Parliaments the power to set economic policy and hands it over to an unelected set of bankers who will impose the economic policies of price stability, deflation and high unemployment throughout the European Community."

One a few weeks ago, he wrote in the Independent newspaper:

"There is a lot wrong with the European Union, a lot of change needed… My fellow leadership candidates differ on whether Labour should join a cross-party 'Yes' campaign or run an independent one, but I think it pre-empts the debate. I want Labour to set its own agenda and use this pre-referendum period to discuss this across the country."

The Scottish National Party is "unashamedly, though not uncritically, pro-European" according to its manifesto and can be counted on to campaign to remain in the union.

The latest poll will put pressure on Cameron to push for more reforms of the EU, but whether he can get Brussels to hand over sufficient powers to Westminster to assuage his critics and head off a Brexit is open to question.

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