The Hawker Hunter aircraft was taking part in the Shoreham air show, west of Brighton, when it failed to pull out of a loop and crashed onto a busy main road killing at least eleven people.
Assistant Chief Constable Steve Barry, of Sussex Police, said Monday:
"The number of highly likely dead remains at eleven, but may rise. However, we do not expect that figure to be greater than 20, probably fewer."
All air displays across the UK – and Europe – are guided by strict rules of flying, with the spectators being held behind a crowd line, which is set back from the display line, which runs parallel to the crowd line.
According to the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), display aircraft should not be flown closer than 500 feet of any person, vessel, vehicle or structure and are banned from flying over a congested area "below a height of 1,000 feet above the highest fixed obstacle within a horizontal radius of 600 metres of the aircraft."
The pilot of the Hawker Hunter, named as former RAF pilot Andy Hill, who flies for British Airways, is an extremely competent flier with a full knowledge of the flying rules. Experts are investigating whether or not his aircraft lost power or ability to maneuver as it pulled out the loop.
Aviation expert Julian Bray told the Guardian newspaper: "A number of things could have happened. For example, there’s a phenomenon called the false horizon, where doing manoeuvres near the sea means your visual horizon plays tricks with the brain. The pilot might have got his horizons wrong. The aircraft should have been 500ft above the ground and it certainly wasn’t.
"The other possibility is the engine actually flamed out at one point and the pilot was trying to restart it while he was doing the loop," he said.
"No Complacency"
Despite the investigation continuing, other air displays in the UK are set to continue. The four-day Bournemouth Air Festival – also on the English Channel coast – continued as normal last weekend.
Tendring District Council (TDC), which runs the popular show, said it had been in contact with its flight consultants following the crash at Shoreham. Nigel Brown, TDC’s Communications Manager, said that there have been ongoing discussions throughout the day.
"At this point in time nothing has changed as far as Clacton is concerned but any guidance put out by the Civil Aviation Authority following the incident at Shoreham will obviously be taken on board."
Mr Brown confirmed that the Hawker Hunter which crashed was not due to appear at Clacton on either day of the town’s event. "While this terrible crash does not directly affect us, our thoughts very much go out to the family and friends of anyone who died, was injured or affected by the incident."
Mr Brown said that Clacton is a different type of show to Shoreham as the majority of the flying takes place over the sea rather than land.
"However, there will be no complacency and those people directly involved in the flying displays will be going through all the normal checks and procedures that take place before any event of this kind," he said.
"TDC works extremely closely with all the Emergency Services throughout the year and during the event to ensure that robust safety measures are in place. Safety is – and always will be — our primary concern at all times."