Poroshenko’s army has little chance to control eastern Ukraine as it is too weak to rebuff militias’ attacks, the German magazine “Focus” reported.
The magazine suggests three scenarios for further developments of the situation in Ukraine.
However, this scenario is considered highly unlikely as Ukraine has old weapons and is weaker than independence supporters from the military point of view. The country is also suffering from severe economic recession and needs a respite to solve its domestic problems.
Kiev could have a chance of success only in case of massive military support from the Western countries, the magazine writes. However, Germany has already rejected this option and the US is likely to abandon the idea of weapon supplies as well.
In this case, Western countries may consent to supply Kiev with weapons or impose further sanctions against Russia.
According to the magazine, this is a likely scenario as the expansion of the area under control to the entire regions of Donetsk and Luhansk would be useful for the militias from the economic point of view.
This scenario is likely, but contains a lot of stumbling blocks that should be overcome, the magazine reports. If Kiev does not make concessions to the independence supporters, a new escalation will be likely to occur anytime.